Nasdaq 100 futures have dropped after failing to break above the 25,794–26,036 range, a barrier it faced since November 2025. Prices are now close to 25,578, which shifts the focus back to the important daily pivot at 25,405, a key decision point. The daily market structure remains active, allowing for a potential rise if the breakout range is reclaimed. If the pivot at 25,405 holds, it may support another attempt to reach the upper range again. Key levels to watch are 25,794–26,036 at the top, with possible dips to 25,051 and 24,774 if the pivot fails.

Nasdaq 100 Market Outlook

If prices rise above 25,794, it could indicate that the recent decline was just temporary, possibly putting the market back on an upward track. However, if it fails to hold above 25,405, attention will shift downward, starting with support at 25,051 and possibly reaching 24,142 if selling pressure continues. In contrast, Bitcoin is pushing to new lows, which is different from the recent pullback in Nasdaq futures. This difference highlights varying behaviors in risk markets, though it doesn’t strongly link the two. Overall, market watchers are keenly observing whether 25,405 will hold since it remains crucial for the future direction. As of February 1, 2026, the Nasdaq 100 futures market is at a critical point after it couldn’t push past the 25,794 mark. Prices have fallen back to the important daily pivot of 25,405, now the battleground. This weakness follows a stronger-than-expected jobs report last Friday and recent inflation data showing sticky headline CPI at 3.1%, reducing hopes for quick rate cuts. For derivatives traders, the focus is on how the price behaves around the 25,405 pivot. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has risen to nearly 17, indicating that traders are preparing for more uncertainty. If the pivot holds, it could lead to short-term bullish strategies, like selling put credit spreads, in anticipation of another move toward 25,794 resistance.

Trading Strategies and Market Implications

If prices fall below 25,405, it would suggest a deeper drop toward 25,051 and then 24,774. This move aligns with cautious guidance from major tech firms during the recent Q4 2025 earnings season. Traders might consider buying puts or initiating bearish call spreads to aim for those lower levels. This failed breakout resembles what we saw in the third quarter of 2025, where an initial failure led to a multi-week decline before the trend continued upward. The market indicates that upward momentum has paused. Therefore, managing positions around this pivot will be crucial in the coming weeks. A rise back above 25,794 would negate the current bearish trend, turning the failed breakout into a simple shakeout. Achieving this would need a significant positive trigger, which doesn’t seem to be on the immediate horizon. Until that happens, the risk leans toward testing the lower end of the established range. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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