The US job market is expected to stabilize, with Nonfarm Payrolls predicted to grow by 70,000 jobs and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. The January consumer price index report, delayed until Friday, will influence how the market views these trends.
Interest Rate Expectations
The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in March, with possible cuts in June or September. Many Fed officials are stressing the need to stay vigilant about inflation, even as the job market stabilizes.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) ranks among the top ten traded currencies worldwide. It is often viewed as a safe-haven currency thanks to Switzerland’s stable economy and neutral political stance. Its value is closely linked to the Euro because of Switzerland’s dependence on the Eurozone, with models indicating over 90% correlation.
In 2025, market predictions suggested a weak US dollar and a steady Swiss franc. Analysts expected the USD/CHF pair to stay low, around 0.7730, since the Fed was likely to cut rates while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintained its position. This outlook was based on a labor market that was stabilizing but not strongly growing.
As of today, February 9, 2026, this situation has changed. The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report for January 2026 revealed a surprising gain of 215,000 jobs, lifting the USD/CHF pair to about 0.8850. This is a stark contrast to the modest forecast of 70,000 job gains from early 2025.
Market Strategies
On the Swiss side, little has changed, which is a key reason for the franc’s current weakness. Swiss inflation for January 2026 was reported at just 1.4%, well below the SNB’s 2% target. This suggests that the SNB has no reason to raise interest rates, making Swiss rates less appealing.
After cutting rates twice in 2025, the Federal Reserve is now signaling a pause due to a strong labor market and ongoing inflation. This difference in approaches—between a Fed that is becoming more hawkish and a neutral SNB—suggests that the USD/CHF is likely to keep rising. We believe the factors supporting a stronger dollar against the franc are now stronger than they were a year ago.
For traders focused on derivatives, this environment is good for strategies that take advantage of rising USD/CHF momentum. We recommend buying call options with strike prices of 0.8900 and 0.9000, expiring in the next 4 to 8 weeks. This allows traders to join in potential gains while limiting maximum risk.
Additionally, selling out-of-the-money put options can be a wise strategy to earn premiums. For example, selling a put option with a strike price of 0.8700 plays into our belief that any declines will be minor and brief. However, traders should stay alert for any sudden negative US economic news that could impact the market.
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