Societe Generale analysts see the Swiss franc holding firm as EUR/CHF drops to fresh post-2015 lows amid a risk-on mood

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 10, 2026
    EUR/CHF dropped to a new post-2015 low of 0.91237 per euro in early trading. The Swiss franc strengthened even though markets were in a risk-on mood. Traders linked the move to the Swiss franc funding market, not to broad risk sentiment. One factor was Alphabet’s five-part bond deal in Swiss francs, which can increase demand for the currency. EUR/CHF also fell after sell calls, including one that targeted 0.87 per euro. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) was described as steady. It sees inflation as on target over the next two years. SNB president Martin Schlegel said the bank could return to negative rates if needed, but the bar is high given the current inflation outlook. At the SNB’s December meeting, when EUR/CHF was 0.9328, the bank said it was confident inflation would stay on target for the next two years. The article noted it was produced with help from an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. The Swiss franc remains very strong, pushing EUR/CHF to new lows near 0.9123—levels not seen since the 2015 policy shift. This looks driven by specific market events, such as Alphabet’s large bond issue, rather than a change in the economic backdrop. With Swiss inflation at a mild 1.6% in January 2026, the central bank is not under pressure to push back against franc strength. The SNB looks likely to stay on the sidelines, which leaves room for more franc gains. At its December 2025 meeting, it said inflation is on target, and the president repeated that negative rates are a last resort. This suggests the bank will accept a stronger currency for now. That removes a key risk for traders positioning for EUR/CHF to fall further. Over the next few weeks, derivatives traders could consider buying EUR/CHF put options to benefit from the downtrend. This keeps risk limited to the premium paid, while offering upside if EUR/CHF falls toward the 0.87 level that some analysts have flagged. Similar periods of franc strength in the past have shown that fighting the trend can be expensive. Because policy can change quickly, traders could also consider selling out-of-the-money EUR/CHF call spreads. One-month implied volatility is around 6.5%, which may offer decent premium for trades that assume EUR/CHF will not rebound sharply. This strategy can profit if the pair moves lower or stays range-bound, helped by time decay as well as direction.

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