NZD/USD traded near 0.6050 on Tuesday after rallying from the late November low around 0.5580. The pair is still above the 50-day EMA at 0.5874 and the 200-day EMA at 0.5845. Monday closed at 0.6043, down 0.21%.
The pair hit 0.6094 in late January. For the past two weeks, it has moved in a range between about 0.6000 and 0.6094. A break above 0.6094 would point to the 52-week high near 0.6122. Support is at 0.6000, then 0.5950 and 0.5874.
New Zealand Labour Data And RBNZ Outlook
New Zealand labour data showed unemployment rising to a 10-year high of 5.4%, while employment grew 0.5%. The RBNZ meets on Wednesday, 18 February. The Official Cash Rate is expected to stay at 2.25%, and markets do not price the first hike before October.
US January Non-Farm Payrolls are due Wednesday after being postponed from 6 February to 11 February. The consensus is 70K, compared with 50K previously. Other forecasts include 4.4% unemployment, earnings growth of 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, plus an annual benchmark revision. Fed remarks are also expected from Schmid, Bowman and Hammack.
The Kiwi is holding near 0.6050, but the picture has changed after the US Non-Farm Payrolls release. The report was a major miss, showing a loss of 15,000 jobs versus an expected gain of 70,000. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.5%. This kind of result often weakens the US Dollar and can increase pressure on the Federal Reserve.
This weaker US data makes an early test of the 0.6094 resistance level likely. Traders looking to position for more upside may consider call options with a strike at or above 0.6100 to capture the move. A similar NFP miss in Q3 2025 sparked a sharp rally, and the market could react in a similar way again.
Key Risks And Technical Levels Ahead
The next key event is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on February 18, where the new governor must weigh rising domestic unemployment. The latest Global Dairy Trade auction showed a small price gain of 0.8%. However, China’s PMI slipped into contraction at 49.8, which signals softer demand from New Zealand’s largest trading partner. That could limit further gains and make selling call spreads above 0.6150 a possible way to benefit if momentum fades.
The daily chart still looks bullish, but the Stochastic Oscillator was already near overbought before the US data. A break above 0.6094 looks possible, but the 52-week high near 0.6122 may be a tough hurdle given the mixed signals from New Zealand. If the pair cannot push higher, the key level to watch is the 0.6000 psychological support.
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