The NASDAQ100 has moved sideways for the last three to four months and is trading near its early October 2025 level. That makes Elliott Wave (EW) analysis less reliable, so we also use other indicators in a “weight of the evidence” approach. In mid-term election years, the average seasonal pattern shows a bottom on 5 February, a peak around 15 February, a mild dip near 21 February, then a rise to an 18 March high. After that, the average path trends lower until October. The NASDAQ100 bottomed on 6 February and then started a rally.

Seasonal Pattern And Near Term Context

The updated EW count still points to 26608. This comes from a 161.8% extension of the 2020–2021 Wave-1, measured from the 2020 low (Wave-2). The prior peak on 29 October was about 500 points below that extension. Wave-1 rose from 6772 to 16765 (9993 points). Wave-2 bottomed on 13 October 2022 at 10440. The Wave-3 target is 10440 + 9992 × 1.618 = 26608. Bear warning levels are 24854, 25112, 25418, 25840, and 26182. Because the NASDAQ100 has been range-bound for months, it has made little progress. It is still near levels first seen in early October 2025. With no clear trend, forecasting is harder, so we rely on multiple tools to build a clearer view. This kind of “stuck” market often leads to a larger, more decisive move. So far, price action has tracked the typical mid-term election year seasonal pattern well. That template called for a bottom around February 5. We saw the year’s low on February 6. The same model suggests the current rally may peak around February 15. The rally has also been helped by recent economic data. Core inflation (PCE) eased to 2.7%, slightly below expectations. That gave the market support in the short term and fits the seasonal setup. In similar cases, like the market response to inflation data in late 2024, good news often helped drive a final push higher before a broader turn.

Positioning And Levels To Watch

For derivatives traders, this points to a very short-term bullish bias over the next few days. Traders could consider short-dated call options or bull call spreads to target a final move higher into the February 15–21 window. The key point is that this move likely marks the end of a rally phase, not the start of a lasting uptrend. The bigger opportunity may come next. The seasonal pattern points to a more meaningful decline after a final high around March 18. That also fits the broader Elliott Wave view, which expects a multi-month correction once this rally completes. This decline could run into October. Traders may want to get ready to shift to a bearish strategy in the coming weeks. That could include buying puts with April or May expirations to target the start of the expected downturn. Bear put spreads can also help position for a sustained move lower while limiting risk. On the upside, the key levels are the bear warning zones: 24854 up to 26182. As price moves into these areas, it may make sense to cut bullish exposure and begin building bearish positions. How the market behaves at these levels can offer important clues about when a reversal may begin. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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