USD/JPY fell for a fourth straight session and traded near 152.90 in Asian hours on Thursday. The pair weakened as the Japanese Yen strengthened after new verbal warnings from Tokyo.
Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura said officials are watching moves “with a high sense of urgency” and remain alert to fresh Yen swings. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government would respond to currency moves in line with the US–Japan joint statement.
The Yen also got support from optimism about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal plans and their impact on domestic growth. Expectations of fiscal support also lifted demand for Japanese equities.
Losses in USD/JPY may be limited because the US Dollar firmed on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep a cautious policy stance after stronger US labour data. The US Consumer Price Index report is due on Friday.
US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 130,000 in January after a revised 48,000 gain in December, beating forecasts of 70,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%.
With the drop to around 152.90, the market is showing a classic standoff: possible Japanese intervention versus a strong US dollar. Tokyo’s verbal warnings are getting louder, which is pushing the pair lower. At the same time, a cautious Fed, backed by solid economic data, is helping to support the dollar.
Japan’s willingness to act should not be underestimated. The threat of intervention looks more credible this time. In spring and summer 2024, the Ministry of Finance spent more than ¥9 trillion on currency interventions to support the yen. Today’s official rhetoric suggests a similar line is being drawn, which makes short-term bets against the yen riskier.
On the other hand, the US economy is still showing surprising strength, which may limit how far the pair can fall. The strong 130,000 NFP result for January 2026 continues the pattern of resilient labour-market data seen through the second half of 2025. This strength keeps pressure on the Fed to delay any rate cuts, which supports the dollar.
Friday’s US CPI report is the key event that could break the deadlock. Core inflation has stayed stubborn, averaging about 3.4% in the last quarter of 2025, which has complicated the Fed’s outlook. Another strong inflation reading could easily outweigh intervention threats and send USD/JPY sharply higher.
With strong forces pulling in both directions, implied volatility may rise in the coming weeks. That could make non-directional option strategies, such as buying a straddle or a strangle, a sensible choice. These strategies can profit from a large move either way, whether it comes from a surprise CPI figure or actual intervention by Japan.
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