Russia may be looking at rejoining the US Dollar settlement system, according to a Bloomberg report. The report cites an internal Kremlin memo that outlines possible areas for US–Russia cooperation. The memo lists a possible return to US Dollar-based settlement, joint oil and natural gas ventures, cooperation on critical raw materials, and work in nuclear energy. It also mentions AI-related projects and preferential terms for US companies that return to Russia.

Potential Areas For Us Russia Cooperation

The memo says any move would depend on the US lifting sanctions on Russia, including restoring access to US Dollar transactions. Western officials quoted in the report question whether Russia would shift away from China, which supplies many components used in Russia’s war economy. The memo says US Dollar integration would help stabilise Russia’s balance of payments and support its foreign exchange markets. For the US, it would strengthen the US Dollar’s position as a reserve currency and could change global energy trade costs between China and America. After the report, the US Dollar Index (DXY) pared earlier losses. It had dropped to about 96.74, then traded around 96.93 and moved toward 97.00. This adds a major geopolitical factor to a situation that has been fairly steady for the past few years. Because markets still remember the extreme volatility of 2022, implied volatility in options on currency and energy futures may rise sharply. For traders, this points to strategies that can benefit from a big move in price, even if the direction is unclear.

Market Implications And Trading Considerations

The US Dollar Index, currently trading near 104.5, could be one of the main winners if Russia makes a credible move back into the dollar system. It would directly challenge the de-dollarization theme that has grown since sanctions began, and it could trigger a strong rally in the greenback. We see value in buying long-dated call options on the DXY or related currency futures to position for that outcome. We also need to look at the ruble, which has stayed weak against the dollar and has traded above 140 for most of 2025. If policy shifts are confirmed and sanctions are lifted, the ruble could strengthen sharply. While most traders have limited access to direct ruble derivatives, this highlights the large “all-or-nothing” risk in assets tied to the Russian economy. In energy markets, with Brent crude holding above $85 a barrel, this development is a clear bearish risk. Joint ventures and renewed Russian access to Western energy markets could mean more stable, long-term supply. Because of that, we should consider buying put options on crude futures for late 2026 to hedge against, or profit from, a possible decline in prices. Still, many remain skeptical that Russia would pivot away from China, so this outcome is far from guaranteed. Talks could fail, and markets could quickly return to where they were. That uncertainty supports using defined-risk option strategies, such as straddles, to trade the chance of a major move without needing to pick the direction. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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