Gold fell almost 2.7% on Thursday. It dropped to $4,945 from an intraday high of $5,100 and briefly moved below $4,900. The fall came even though US yields declined, and it followed strong US jobs data. US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending February 7 were 227K versus 222K expected. The 4-week average was 219.5K. January Nonfarm Payrolls showed 130K jobs added versus 70K estimated, and the unemployment rate slipped from 4.4% to 4.3%.

Market Repricing After Strong Jobs Data

Swap pricing pointed to a “higher for longer” Federal Reserve view. Markets reduced expectations for a June cut and priced about 30 bps of easing for the July 29 meeting. The US 10-year yield fell nearly seven basis points to 4.106%, while the DXY rose 0.07% to 96.99. Reports also pointed to renewed nuclear talks between the US and Iran and a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal. Russia was also said to be considering a return to US dollar settlement. US CPI expectations for January were 2.5% YoY headline (down from 2.7%) and 2.5% core (down from 2.6%). Key technical levels included the 20-day SMA at $4,940, support near $4,800, and the 50-day SMA at $4,602. Resistance was seen in the $5,000 to $5,100 area. Central banks bought 1,136 tonnes of gold worth about $70 billion in 2022. We are seeing a familiar pattern today, February 13, 2026. It looks like the sharp gold sell-off seen around this time in 2025. Last year, strong jobs data and easing geopolitical risks pushed gold down almost 3%, even as yields fell. Those same drivers are back, which suggests caution for traders still holding long positions. In January 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls came in far above forecasts. The latest January 2026 report was also stronger than expected, with 150,000 jobs added and unemployment down to 4.2%. As a result, traders are pulling back from May rate-cut bets and shifting expectations toward the third quarter. The market also remembers that the Fed kept rates steady longer than many expected through 2025.

Geopolitics Dollar And Near Term Gold Risks

Last year, hopes of progress with Iran and talk of Russia returning to dollar settlements reduced gold’s safe-haven appeal. Today, renewed diplomatic channels between Washington and Beijing are having a similar effect. They lower the geopolitical risk premium that built up over the past quarter. That drop in tension can cap bullion’s upside in the near term. In February 2025, a stronger dollar outweighed falling Treasury yields, which is unusual and negative for gold. We are seeing that again. Even with the 10-year yield easing to about 4.05%, the US Dollar Index is holding above 97.00. That is a major headwind for dollar-priced gold. When the dollar is strong, gold costs more for overseas buyers, which can reduce demand. Even so, gold still has important support from central banks, which have been steady buyers. Official data shows they added more than 1,000 tonnes in both 2023 and 2024. That continues the trend from 2022 and helps build a floor under prices during deeper pullbacks. This kind of institutional demand is stronger than it was a decade ago. For derivatives traders, this backdrop may favor put options or put spreads to hedge against a slide toward $4,800, a key psychological level that was tested last year. Selling covered calls against physical holdings may also generate income, since a quick rebound above $5,000 looks less likely until the market has clearer timing for the Fed’s first rate cut. Upcoming inflation data, including next week’s CPI report, will be important for the next move. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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