NZD/USD traded around 0.6050–0.6057, close to a two-week high of 0.6057. Markets are watching the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) statement on February 18 and any changes in expected rate paths for the RBNZ or the Federal Reserve. The RBNZ is expected to hold the Official Cash Rate at 2.25% after 325 basis points of cuts since August 2024. Recent New Zealand data showed unemployment at 5.4% and employment growth at 0.5% (vs. a 0.3% forecast). Markets are pricing roughly a 75% chance of a rate hike by September.

Us Data And Fed Expectations

In the US, January Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 130K. This pushed the expected start of Fed rate cuts from June to July. January CPI is due next, with forecasts of 0.29% month-on-month for headline CPI and 0.39% for core CPI. On the technical side, the pair held above 0.6000 after the February 6 low of 0.5937 and is trading near a 0.6050 pivot. Resistance sits near 0.6100. RSI is around 55. The 50-day SMA is near 0.5950, with the 200-day SMA below that. On the 1-hour chart, NZD/USD has been range-bound between 0.6030 and 0.6060. A break above 0.6100 would target 0.6120–0.6150. A move below 0.6000 could open a path toward 0.5950. With NZD/USD compressed in a tight range around 0.6050, the near-term focus is today’s US CPI release. We see this as a binary event, which can make short-dated options strategies like straddles or strangles appealing for a potential volatility spike. A softer-than-expected inflation print could be the trigger that pushes the pair above the current consolidation.

Strategy Into Rbnz Meeting

Looking ahead to next week’s RBNZ meeting on February 18, the key factor will be forward guidance. A hold at 2.25% is already priced in, but any language that supports the market’s 75% odds of a September hike would likely be bullish for the Kiwi. We think traders could consider March call options with strikes above 0.6100 to position for a hawkish surprise. The fundamental backdrop is gradually improving for the Kiwi, which is a shift from most of 2025. A continued rise in the Global Dairy Trade index, which has rebounded from last year’s lows, would support New Zealand’s terms of trade. This strengthens the view that the RBNZ may be finished cutting rates earlier than the Fed. The main medium-term theme is policy divergence between the RBNZ and the Fed. If the Fed does not start cutting until July while the RBNZ begins to lean toward hikes, NZD/USD could strengthen later this year. Call spreads expiring in the third quarter can express this view while keeping risk defined. That said, traders should respect the technical resistance near 0.6100 and the decade-high unemployment rate of 5.4% (levels last seen around 2014–2015). A weaker labor market could limit how hawkish the RBNZ is willing to be and may cap near-term upside for the Kiwi. As a result, bullish derivative positions should be structured with risk controls in case the pair fails at resistance and falls back toward support around 0.6000. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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