Norway’s Q1 oil investment survey shows expected spending of NOK 255.3 billion in 2026 and NOK 201.1 billion in 2027. This implies nominal growth of 0.6% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027.
After adjusting for cost inflation, the implied investment volumes are stronger than Norges Bank’s December MPR projections. Norges Bank’s volume estimates were -3% for 2026 and -6% for 2027.
Oil Investment Outlook And Policy Signal Read Through
Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache’s annual address did not include any new monetary policy signals. Norges Bank also said it will start publishing a summary of the Monetary Policy Committee’s discussions later this year.
The goal is to improve guidance and reduce volatility on MPC meeting days. The article notes it was produced using an artificial intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.
The new oil investment survey points to higher spending than Norges Bank expected. This suggests the Norwegian economy is stronger than the central bank forecast in December 2025. Because of this, we should question market pricing that assumes the bank will need to cut interest rates soon.
This strong survey is not a one-off. Other data also points to a resilient economy. January unemployment came in at a solid 3.4%. Brent crude has also stayed firm, trading above $85 a barrel. Together, these factors support the view that the economy is on a stronger footing than previously expected.
Krone Positioning And Volatility Implications
With this backdrop, traders should rethink bearish positions in the Norwegian Krone. There may be value in buying NOK call options versus the euro, or selling out-of-the-money puts on pairs like EUR/NOK. Stronger fundamentals could give the currency steady support over the next quarter.
Separately, Norges Bank’s plan to publish summaries of its policy discussions is an important change. More transparency should reduce market surprises on meeting days. As a result, we may see fewer sharp and unpredictable moves like those that sometimes followed policy announcements in 2025.
This also means implied krone volatility—especially for options that expire around future policy meetings—may be too high. Volatility-selling strategies, such as shorting straddles on EUR/NOK, could become more attractive. The risk of a surprise announcement from the central bank appears to be falling.
In the coming weeks, the focus should be on a gradual, less volatile strengthening of the krone. The economic data supports NOK gains. The central bank’s new communication approach supports a smoother path for that move.
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