The Pound has fallen against the US Dollar for a fourth straight day. It traded near 1.3600 on Friday after slipping from weekly highs above 1.3700. Softer risk appetite has helped the USD rebound. Trading volumes are still light ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. US headline CPI is expected to rise 0.3% in January. The annual rate is forecast to ease to 2.5% from 2.7% in December. Core CPI is seen falling to 2.5% year on year from 2.6% in December. GBP/USD is testing support near 1.3600. This level sits close to the lower edge of an ascending channel on the daily chart. That setup keeps the broader bias positive, even as near-term price action stays subdued. The 14-day Relative Strength Index is 51, down from overbought levels. A reading near 50 suggests range trading. A move above 60 would support more upside. We saw this same setup in February 2025. GBP/USD was testing 1.3600 while markets waited for US inflation data. Traders expected inflation to cool, which would have weakened the dollar. The call for inflation to fall to 2.5% was the main story at the time. What followed in 2025 showed how stubborn price pressures can be. US core inflation stayed much higher than expected and averaged 3.9% in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve dropped plans for rate cuts and kept a hawkish tone into the autumn. The “stronger for longer” dollar theme later broke the chart support. At the same time, the UK economy struggled. GDP growth in 2025 came in at a weak 0.5%. The Bank of England also had to keep rates high to fight inflation. This gap in economic strength turned the early-2025 ascending channel into a bull trap. Support at 1.3600 gave way, and the pair fell sharply in the months that followed. Now, on February 13, 2026, a similar mix is appearing again. US non-farm payrolls showed a stronger-than-expected 215,000 jobs added in January. UK inflation just came in at 3.1%, still well above the Bank of England’s target. With that backdrop, derivatives traders may want to be careful around any Pound strength and consider buying GBP/USD puts to hedge against a repeat of last year’s slide.

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