U.S. CFTC data show non-commercial net oil positions fell to 117.8K from 124.6K

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 14, 2026
    US CFTC data shows net non-commercial positions in oil fell to 117.8K, down from 124.6K in the previous report. Large speculators are cutting bullish bets on crude oil. The drop in net long positions suggests hedge funds and other major traders have less confidence that prices will rise. Overall sentiment is turning more cautious and could be shifting bearish. This pullback matches recent economic data. Global manufacturing PMI for January 2026 slipped into mild contraction at 49.7. This continues the trend from late 2025, when signs of slower industrial demand—especially in Asia—started to appear. Slower factory activity usually means lower energy use, which helps explain the reduced speculative buying. Supply is also weighing on sentiment. The latest EIA report showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.8 million barrels, surprising a market that expected a small draw. This adds to a pattern of steady U.S. shale output, which has partly offset OPEC+ supply cuts. Extra supply makes traders less willing to hold large long positions. Given this setup, derivatives traders may want to reduce exposure to outright long futures in the near term. If you are already long, consider hedging with put options or using a collar to limit downside risk, especially if WTI moves toward the $70 per barrel support area. The rise in speculative shorts also points to growing momentum for a downside test. A similar pattern played out in fall 2025, when falling net length came before a short but sharp price drop. Watch upcoming inventory data and Chinese import numbers for confirmation. If prices fail to hold key technical levels, speculative selling could accelerate in the weeks ahead.

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