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    Standard Chartered’s Tommy Wu raises Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2%, citing momentum and sentiment

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 14, 2026
    Standard Chartered raised its Hong Kong GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 3.2%, up from 2.5%. It cited strong momentum in Q4, higher financial activity, and improved consumer sentiment. The bank expects more financial-sector activity, including IPO fundraising and wider use of the Renminbi internationally. It also expects consumer sentiment to keep improving during the current stock market rally. It forecasts a modest rebound in the housing market. However, the outlook is still cautious because of structural changes and global risks. HIBOR is expected to stay lower in the first half of the year, then rise gradually again by Q4. The article says it was produced using an AI tool and reviewed by an editor. We see the upgraded 3.2% GDP growth forecast as a strong positive signal for equities. The Hang Seng Index has already risen more than 15% since November 2025, which supports this momentum. Over the next few weeks, buying call options on the index looks like a direct way to gain from the expected continued strength. The stock market rally also seems to be lifting consumer confidence. January retail sales rose 4.8%, which supports a modest housing rebound. Housing prices just posted their first monthly gain after a weak 2025. This makes call options on property and retail-focused stocks worth considering. Expectations for lower HIBOR in the first half of the year also create an opportunity in interest-rate markets. The 3-month HIBOR has already dropped from its 2025 highs above 5.5%, which supports this view. Traders may consider positions that benefit from falling short-term rates, such as going long HIBOR futures. We are also watching for a pickup in financial activity, especially IPOs, after a quiet 2025. With a stronger pipeline of new listings expected in Q2, volatility could rise. That could make selling put options on financial-sector ETFs attractive, allowing traders to collect premium while taking a bullish-to-neutral view.

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