The US and Iran ended a second round of nuclear talks in Geneva. Both sides said they made progress on key principles. However, they still disagree on uranium enrichment, sanctions, and how broad the talks should be.
During the talks, Iran held live-fire drills and partially closed the Strait of Hormuz. The strait handles about 20% of global oil flows. This was described as the first closure since the US began a military build-up in the region.
Supply Signals And Opec Decisions
US supply data pointed the other way. EIA figures showed crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels, the largest weekly build in a year. OPEC+ is leaning toward restarting production increases from April, with a meeting set for 1 March.
WTI opened Tuesday near $62.20 and rose 3.4% on the day. This move pushed prices back above the 200-day and 50-day EMAs. The 200-day is near $62.43–$62.45, and the 50-day is at $61.25.
Resistance is at $65.00 and the year-to-date high of $66.25, with $67.00 above that. The Stochastic Oscillator is in the middle of its range.
Around this time last year, oil prices swung sharply because of uncertainty around the US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Tensions were high as Iran ran military drills and partly closed the Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical risk created major volatility for traders.
Market Backdrop And Trading Approach
Today, the picture is different. A limited agreement reached in late 2025 eased some of the toughest sanctions and allowed more Iranian oil onto the market. Even so, tensions in the region remain. That helps support prices, because any flare-up could quickly threaten supply routes again. The market is pricing in a fragile peace, and it remains sensitive to new headlines.
In early 2025, the market was dealing with a huge 8.5 million-barrel weekly build in US crude inventories, which pressured prices. At the same time, OPEC+ was hinting it could raise output, which added to the bearish mood. This extra supply worked against the support coming from geopolitical fears.
By contrast, the latest EIA report for the week ending February 13, 2026, showed a surprise inventory draw of 2.1 million barrels. That points to stronger demand. In addition, OPEC+ agreed in December 2025 to keep production steady through the first quarter of this year, which reduced fears of more supply. Together, these factors create a stronger fundamental backdrop for oil than we had a year ago.
On the technical side, this time in 2025 WTI was trying to reclaim its 200-day moving average near $62.43. Price action was choppy, which suggested consolidation. It was a key moment, with momentum evenly balanced.
Now the chart looks more clearly bullish. WTI is trading near $84.50, well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Last year’s consolidation near $62 became the base for the strong uptrend that followed. Overall momentum looks positive and established.
With fundamentals showing tighter supply and technicals confirming an uptrend, we think traders may want to position for more gains. Buying call options or setting up bull call spreads for April or May expiration can offer defined risk while targeting a move toward $90. This approach also aligns with the current momentum.
At the same time, geopolitical headlines can bring volatility back quickly. It may make sense to add protection, such as buying out-of-the-money put options. This can hedge long exposure against a sudden drop caused by failed diplomacy or a new regional conflict.
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