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    US continuing jobless claims rose above forecasts to 1.869 million vs 1.86 million, signalling labour market weakness in February

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 19, 2026
    US continuing jobless claims for the week ending 6 February came in at 1.869 million. This was slightly above the expected level of 1.86 million.

    Labor Market Signals Cooling

    The rise in continuing jobless claims to 1.869 million is worth watching. It may be an early sign that the labor market is starting to cool, which matters because jobs data is a key input for monetary policy. On its own, this report supports the idea that the economy could be slowing. This jobs data clashes with the early-February inflation report, which showed annual CPI was higher than expected at 3.2%. That leaves markets stuck between two forces: a softer labor market that supports rate cuts, and sticky inflation that argues for keeping rates steady. This push-and-pull is a major reason implied volatility could stay elevated in the weeks ahead. For trading, this setup supports strategies that can benefit from a large move in either direction. Long-volatility positions—such as SPX straddles—may be worth considering ahead of the March FOMC meeting. With the market divided, any major data release could spark a sharp price move. Looking back at 2025, mixed economic signals often led to choppy, range-bound trading instead of clean trends. In those periods, traders who held options premium often did better than traders trying to pick a direction. Today’s backdrop feels similar to what we saw last fall. Rate markets are already adjusting to this claims figure. Fed Funds futures now imply a 65% chance of a rate cut by the May meeting, up from 50% last week. That shift can also make options on Treasury futures a compelling way to express a view on the Fed’s next move.

    Rates Market Repricing Expectations

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