New Zealand’s exports fell to $6.21B in January, down from $7.65B in the previous period.
A new report shows New Zealand’s exports dropped to $6.21 billion in January. That is a sharp 18.8% fall from the prior month. This points to weaker overseas demand for New Zealand goods and could pressure the New Zealand dollar (NZD) in the coming weeks.
Implications For Nzd Usd
We may want to position for a lower NZD/USD exchange rate. One direct approach is to buy NZD/USD put options expiring in the next four to six weeks. This view is also supported by signs of slower growth in China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner. China’s manufacturing PMI has stayed just below 50, which signals contraction.
The export drop also affects expectations for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Inflation was still a concern at the end of 2025, but weaker growth could push the RBNZ toward a more dovish tone. Because of this, interest rate futures that price in the RBNZ holding rates—or even cutting later this year—may look more attractive.
We have seen similar setups before. In Q2 2024, weak export data came before a multi-cent decline in the kiwi. Since Australia’s key commodity exports have been more stable, a long AUD/NZD position could work well as a hedge. This trade would benefit if Australia continues to outperform New Zealand.
Alternative Hedge Using Aud Nzd
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