S&P 500 (EPH) and Nasdaq (ENQ) futures stayed inside Thursday’s ranges ahead of the 8:30 US GDP and inflation report. Both contracts looked balanced. The key question was whether price would hold above or below the main “gate” levels after the data.
For EPH, Thursday held the central pivot at 6866.50. Upside was limited by the upper gate at 6893–6909. Price briefly pushed above the gate to 6923, then fell back and rotated between 6866.50 and 6893–6909.
Key Levels And Gates
By mid-London, EPH was near 6889.50. A shelf formed around 6889–6893, just under the upper gate. If price breaks and holds above 6893–6909, 6979.50 comes into view. Closer reference points are 6923, 6936, and 6952.
If EPH falls below 6866.50, focus shifts to 6851–6842. Acceptance below 6842 points to 6803, with 6834, 6827, and 6818 watched along the way.
ENQ traded near 24975. Value/POC was building around 24900, with a decision pivot at 25051. Key levels include an upper gate at 25134–25186, an upper range at 25405, and a lower range at 24744.
Acceptance above 25051, and then above 25186, targets 25228, 25269, 25321, and 25405. Rejection below 25051 keeps attention on 24934, 24897, 24861, and 24816. A break below 24744 targets 24705–24680 and 24579.
Risk Off Shift After Data
Friday’s GDP and inflation report triggered the downside path, as traders read the numbers as a risk-off signal. Core PCE (a key inflation measure) came in hotter than expected at 0.5% month over month, versus 0.3% forecast. This suggests the earlier “wait and see” stance was more about downside risk than a setup for an upside breakout.
After the release, S&P 500 futures lost the key 6851–6842 gate, and the Nasdaq broke decisively below 24744 support. These areas had been acting as a floor. Now they should be treated as overhead resistance in the next sessions. If price rallies back into these zones but fails to gain acceptance, traders will likely see that as a shorting opportunity.
The data also shifted expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Futures markets reduced the odds of a rate cut in the first half of the year. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which had been steady near 14, jumped above 19. That move shows a sharp rise in the cost of portfolio protection and points to larger swings and higher uncertainty over the next month.
This reaction echoes the inflation shocks seen in Q3 2025, when similar surprises led to a fast 7% pullback in major indices. That period showed that when a major catalyst changes the story, the first selloff often is not the last. Until price proves otherwise, the market has shifted from balanced conditions to a defensive posture.
For derivatives traders, this argues against positioning for upside expansion. Selling call credit spreads with strikes above the new resistance near 6900 in the S&P 500 can benefit from both the stronger ceiling and the higher volatility premium. Buying protective puts also makes more sense now, as the market shows clearer downside risk toward targets such as 6803.
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