WTI crude started the week lower. It opened with a bearish gap after topping near $68.00 last Friday, its highest level since 4 August. In the Asian session, it traded above the mid-$65.00s, down more than 1.0% on the day. Trade-war fears weighed on sentiment, raising doubts about global growth and fuel demand.
On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump did not have the authority to impose reciprocal tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Trump then announced a new 15% tariff framework, which added to concerns about weaker fuel demand.
Us Iran Tensions Support Prices
Prices found some support from US-Iran tensions ahead of talks in Geneva on Thursday, after Iran submitted a detailed nuclear proposal. Officials said the meeting could be the last diplomatic chance before the Trump administration considers military action. Iran also warned that regional bases and assets could be targeted if it is attacked.
A weaker US Dollar also helped limit oil’s decline, since crude is priced in dollars. Markets expected the Federal Reserve to hold rates at the next meeting in March. That view was reinforced by hot US inflation data on Friday. At the same time, an advance GDP report showed the US economy slowed sharply in the fourth quarter.
In 2025, markets reacted strongly to similar risks. Trade-war concerns and the chance of a US-Iran conflict drove heavy volatility and pushed WTI back to the mid-$65 range. At the time, the main driver of weakness was fear of a tariff-led slowdown, while Iran-related risk was seen more as a price support. This created a tight push-and-pull for traders.
Today, on February 23, 2026, the focus has shifted. Demand worries have eased, and supply has become the main story. WTI is trading much higher, near $82.50 a barrel, as the physical market stays tight. OPEC+ has kept to its plan and extended voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day through the first half of this year to support prices.
Inventory Draws Confirm Tight Supply
Recent inventory data backs up this tight-supply view. Last week’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed a larger-than-expected draw of 3.1 million barrels, the fourth weekly decline in a row. This suggests that even with slower growth concerns, fuel use remains strong enough to keep inventories low.
The broader backdrop has also changed from the 2025 trade-war story. The main issue now is sticky inflation. January 2026 CPI is still high at 3.3%, which makes the Federal Reserve’s rate path harder to manage. Still, a weaker US Dollar continues to help support crude prices, much as it did before.
The US-Iran tensions mentioned earlier never turned into a full-scale conflict, but they have continued at a low level. This has created a lasting geopolitical risk premium in oil. Any flare-up in the Middle East is now more likely to trigger a sharp spike, not just provide mild support in the background. That risk makes short positions more dangerous.
For derivatives traders, this points to a “buy-the-dip” approach in the weeks ahead. Selling out-of-the-money puts to collect premium may also appeal, because tight supply and geopolitical risks could limit the chance of a major price collapse. Volatility should remain elevated, creating opportunities for traders positioned for upward price pressure.
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