USD/KRW has eased in recent sessions but remains inside its recent range. The won has been supported by strong exports, better Korean consumer confidence, and uncertainty over US trade policy.
Unclear US tariff policy could pressure the US dollar. Still, weaker global risk sentiment could cap won gains. The Bank of Korea is expected to leave rates unchanged, and any FX reaction is likely to depend more on the tone of guidance than on the decision itself.
Key Technical Levels
Support is at 1435 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the December high to the January low), then 1432 and 1429. Resistance sits at 1449/52 (the 21- and 100-day moving averages, plus the 50% Fibonacci retracement) and 1458/60 (the 50-day moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
We expect USD/KRW to keep trading in a well-defined range over the next few weeks. Strong Korean exports are helping to hold the won firm. January 2026 data shows a semiconductor-led export jump of more than 15%. A small rise in consumer confidence last month also supports stability.
For derivatives traders, a range market can favor volatility-selling strategies. One approach is selling an iron condor, aiming to collect premium as the pair stays between support and resistance. The idea is to benefit if there is no major breakout.
Because we see a mild downside bias for the dollar, we would prefer selling call options above the expected range. A bearish call credit spread matches this view while keeping risk defined. It earns premium as long as the dollar does not strengthen meaningfully against the won.
Risk Scenario And Hedging
The main risk is a sudden shift in global sentiment, especially if the US announces new tariffs on electric vehicle components. Similar trade uncertainty in mid-2025 triggered a sharp won selloff and broke prior ranges. To protect against a risk-off move, holding some cheap, out-of-the-money puts may be a sensible hedge.
Use the levels above to help choose strikes. We would look to sell calls near the 1449/52 resistance zone and consider selling puts or building bullish positions near the 1435 support area. These technical levels help set clearer boundaries when structuring trades.
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