Nvidia will report Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell as the S&P 500 trades in a narrow range. Investors are watching the report against a $66 billion revenue target, with Nvidia’s GTC event coming next month. Nvidia shares have been stuck between $171 and $194, with a mid-point near $182. The next major resistance is $196, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline that started in November 2025.

Key Earnings Focus

The main question is whether Blackwell chip manufacturing costs will pressure Nvidia’s ~75% profit margins. Markets also want any update on the Vera Rubin chip architecture ahead of GTC. A move above $194 could run into resistance at $196. If price reverses there, it could fall back toward $182 and then $171. If results are strong and margin worries fade, a break above $196 could set up a retest of record highs. The S&P 500 has pulled back from the $7,000 ceiling and is now trading between $6,700 and $6,990. A tighter near-term range has formed between $6,830 and $6,900. The index was rejected at $6,909 (61.8% Fibonacci resistance) and is trading below the 1-hour 200-EMA. The 1-hour Stochastic RSI is rising toward overbought. A strong Nvidia report could lift the index toward $6,990 to $7,000. A weak report could keep trading stuck between $6,900 and $6,830.

Options Market Positioning

With earnings only hours away, options are pricing in a very large move of about 15% in Nvidia by week’s end. This high implied volatility shows traders are not positioned for a minor beat or miss, but for a headline-changing outcome. Demand for downside protection is strong, with the put-call skew at its highest level since the broad tech sell-off in late 2025. For a bullish reaction, price needs a high-volume break above $194, but the key test is the $196 resistance. Traders trying to play the upside may look at weekly call options to capture a short-term momentum burst. A clean break through $196 would suggest Blackwell margin fears were overstated and could trigger a fast unwind of bearish positions. If earnings disappoint or margin guidance is weak, the $194–$196 zone becomes a strong ceiling. A rejection there would be a signal to buy puts targeting the $182 mid-range, with a possible drop to the $171 support level if the news is especially negative. This would reinforce concerns about slowing AI spending, a theme that has grown since January corporate earnings calls. Beyond today, comments from CEO Jensen Huang will quickly re-price options ahead of the March GTC event. Any positive signals on next-generation Vera Rubin chips could lift March and April call premiums, even if the initial earnings reaction is modest. Longer-dated positions may need adjusting based on the tone of the call. For the S&P 500, the tight range between $6,830 and $6,900 can suit premium-selling strategies like iron condors. With the index below key moving averages and showing signs of fatigue, selling out-of-the-money calls and puts can benefit if the market stays range-bound. This approach has worked in the choppy trading seen since the failed $7,000 test earlier this month. If Nvidia delivers a strong beat, the S&P 500 could push to the top of the mini-range near $6,900 and quickly move toward the psychological $7,000 level. That would be a reason to close bearish index positions and potentially buy short-dated SPY or SPX calls. A miss, however, would support the recent rejection at $6,909 and could send the index down to test support at $6,830. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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