US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran has been a serious threat to the United States for a long time. He said Thursday’s talks will mainly focus on Iran’s nuclear program.
Rubio said Iran is not enriching uranium right now, but is trying to reach that capability. He also said Iran has conventional weapons designed to attack the United States.
Irans Ballistic Missile Issue
He said Iran is trying to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles. Rubio said Iran’s refusal to discuss ballistic missiles is a major problem.
Rubio said diplomacy should still be on the table. He called Thursday’s meeting the next opportunity for talks.
He also said the current situation in Cuba cannot continue. He said Cuba needs major change.
In market moves, gold (XAU/USD) was up 0.05% at $5,167 at the time of writing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was down 1.01% at $65.60.
Trading Implications And Risk
These comments about Iran’s ballistic missile program being a “major problem” add real uncertainty, and markets often reprice quickly when uncertainty rises. With WTI near $65, the market may be underestimating the risk that diplomacy fails, which could threaten oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. One approach is to buy out-of-the-money call options on crude oil futures. They can be a lower-cost way to benefit from a sudden price jump if tensions escalate.
Supply shocks like the disruptions in 2025 show how fast prices can spike. Recent shipping data says more than 20% of the world’s daily oil supply moved through the Strait of Hormuz last year. Any military activity in that corridor would disrupt global shipping and likely push oil prices higher, which would support those call options.
Gold is already above $5,100, which suggests investors are seeking safer assets. Central banks have been steady buyers over the past year, and inflation data from late 2025 has stayed stubbornly high, helping support prices. If rhetoric on Iran stays intense, gold could attract even more demand. Call spreads may offer a way to target further upside while limiting the high cost of outright calls.
This geopolitical tension can also spark broader volatility, which has been fairly low so far this quarter. The VIX, a measure of expected market volatility, is up about 10% over the last two weeks from its February lows. Buying VIX futures or call options is a direct way to position for a breakdown in talks that could trigger a wider sell-off and a jump in fear.
Still, diplomacy has not been ruled out. A breakthrough would likely reduce tensions, push oil prices lower, and support a market rally. To hedge that outcome, we could consider buying puts on major energy-sector ETFs as insurance in case unexpectedly positive news defuses the standoff.
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