EUR/USD rose for a second day and traded near 1.1830 in Thursday’s Asian session. The US dollar stayed weak as traders worried about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade policies.
The RSI is 56. This points to improving upside momentum, but it is not yet overbought. Earlier, the RSI was below 30. The MACD line is slightly above the signal line and just in positive territory, with a small positive histogram.
Near Term Technical Outlook
The move higher stalled near the 100-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. A clean break above this level could push the pair toward 1.1860, then 1.1900.
Support is near 1.1790, followed by 1.1760, where the latest bounce started. Staying above 1.1790 keeps the bullish bias in place. A drop below 1.1760 would weaken the rebound and suggest a broader range.
The technical analysis was produced with the help of an AI tool.
EUR/USD is showing modest strength and is trading around 1.0750. This follows recent European Central Bank comments that kept rates at 2.75% but signaled possible cuts ahead. That contrasts with the US Federal Reserve’s firmer stance at 3.50%. This policy gap is the main factor driving the current market tension.
Key Levels And Trading Approach
We have seen similar policy-driven uncertainty before. For example, trade disputes in the late 2010s led to sharp and uneven swings. More recently, in 2025, the pair dropped quickly after an unexpected Fed rate hike. These episodes show that even when price is moving sideways, major news can still trigger a strong breakout.
Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 52, which signals a neutral market with limited momentum. The MACD is also flat and close to its signal line. This supports the view that neither buyers nor sellers are in clear control. As a result, it makes sense to wait for a stronger signal before taking a directional trade.
A key level to watch in the coming weeks is the 50-day Simple Moving Average at 1.0790. A sustained break above it would suggest fresh bullish strength and could open a move toward resistance at 1.0850. Traders could then consider short-term call options to benefit from the upside follow-through.
On the downside, initial support is at 1.0720, which has held on recent pullbacks. A clear close below 1.0720 would suggest rising bearish pressure, possibly helped by a wider interest rate gap. If that support breaks, traders may look at put options targeting the 1.0650 area.
For now, the safest approach is to wait for a confirmed break out of this range. The latest US inflation data showed CPI still high at 2.9%, which may support the dollar. Opening new derivative positions before price clearly moves through 1.0790 or 1.0720 adds unnecessary risk. The market is still waiting for its next major catalyst, so trading plans should reflect that patience.
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