USD/CHF fell for a fifth straight day and traded near 0.7720 during Asian hours on Thursday. The Swiss Franc rose on safe-haven demand as trade tensions picked up again.
Donald Trump moved ahead with new 10% tariffs on trading partners, even after the US Supreme Court blocked part of his proposed duties. In his State of the Union address, he said the US economy is recovering, argued that tariffs support growth, and criticised the Court’s decision.
The Swiss Franc also got support as markets scaled back expectations for near-term Swiss National Bank rate cuts. Swiss inflation was unchanged at 0.1% in January. That is within the SNB’s 0–2% target range and matches its first-quarter outlook.
The Swiss ZEW Expectations Index rose to 9.8 in February from -4.7 in January. This was its second-highest level since January last year. It also supports expectations that the SNB policy rate will stay at 0% through 2026.
Markets are watching Switzerland’s Q4 employment data due later on Thursday, and Q4 GDP on Friday. In the US, weekly initial jobless claims are due during the North American session.
We still see the Swiss Franc holding firm as trade talks between the US and the European Union keep markets on edge. This is similar to the safe-haven buying seen during the tariff disputes in early 2025. USD/CHF is now near 0.8850, well above last year’s lows, but selling pressure is starting to build again.
The Swiss National Bank is giving little reason to expect a shift away from its tight policy stance, which supports the franc. Swiss inflation for January 2026 came in at 1.2%. That is still within the SNB’s target range and well above the 0.1% seen at the start of last year. With the SNB’s next meeting in March, markets expect the policy rate to stay at 1.75%.
On the US side, recent data points to slower momentum, which could weigh on the dollar. The latest Non-Farm Payrolls report showed job growth of 185,000, below forecasts, and January inflation eased to 2.9%. This gap—steady conditions in Switzerland and a softer US outlook—supports the case for a lower USD/CHF.
In the weeks ahead, we think traders should look at strategies that limit exposure to a move higher in the pair. One option is to buy USD put options with a strike below the 0.8800 support level. This offers a defined-risk way to position for a potential drop. It lets traders benefit if the pair falls, while limiting the maximum loss to the premium paid.
We also remember the steep fall during the 2025 trade tensions, when the pair dropped below 0.8000. Today’s tensions are different, but the pattern is familiar: in uncertain times, investors often move into the Swiss Franc. Past volatility in these periods suggests that even small changes in geopolitical sentiment can trigger big moves in this pair.
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