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    Italy’s February consumer confidence beat forecasts, rising to 97.4 vs. 97.2 expected

    by VT Markets
    /
    Feb 26, 2026
    Italy’s consumer confidence index rose to 97.4 in February, beating the 97.2 forecast. This suggests consumer sentiment was a bit stronger than expected. No other details were released.

    Implications For Italian Equities

    This small upside surprise supports the view that Italy’s domestic economy remains resilient. It is not a major market catalyst, but it does suggest downside risks for Italian equities are limited for now. This supports a cautious, optimistic stance in the weeks ahead. With conditions looking stable, we see potential in selling short-dated put options on the FTSE MIB index. This approach is designed to benefit if the market holds steady or drifts slightly higher, while also collecting theta decay. A similar setup appeared in the summer of 2025, when steady consumer data helped put a floor under the index and rewarded put sellers. The data also complicates the outlook for the European Central Bank, which is still dealing with stubborn inflation. Eurostat’s latest figures show Eurozone core inflation at 2.6% for January. Stronger consumer activity in a major economy may delay any rate cuts. Because of this, we should keep exposure to long-duration, rate-sensitive assets limited. This report is especially supportive for Italian banks and consumer-facing stocks. We are considering call spreads on major Italian banks, which tend to benefit from a stable economy and higher-for-longer rates. In the second half of 2025, during a similar period of resilience, the sector outperformed the broader index by more than 4%.

    Volatility And Options Positioning

    Implied volatility on the FTSE MIB has been declining and recently touched a six-month low of 15.2%. This release is unlikely to trigger a volatility spike, and it could even add to the downtrend. In this setting, strategies such as short strangles on the index become more attractive, because they can benefit from both time decay and falling volatility. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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