Silver slipped on Thursday as US-Iran nuclear talks started in Geneva. A stronger US Dollar also capped gains. XAG/USD was at $86.45, staying within this week’s range. Prices still found some support from Middle East tensions and uncertainty over US trade policy.
Silver is up more than 20% over the past six sessions. It hit a three-week high after dropping from the late-January record near $121.66. The daily chart still leans slightly bullish. Price is trying to hold above the 50-day SMA near $83.78 and remains above the 100-day SMA around $68.45.
Technical Momentum Signals
The RSI is holding just above 50. This points to improving momentum, but not overbought conditions. The MACD has crossed above its Signal line and the histogram is positive. The ATR has dropped from recent highs, which suggests volatility is easing.
Support is near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $86.08, based on the move from $121.66 to $64.08. Below that, the 23.6% level sits at $77.67. Resistance is at $92.87 (50%) and then $99.67 (61.8%).
The technical section used an AI tool. A correction on February 26 at 13:15 GMT clarified the 100-day SMA at about $68.45.
Silver is now stabilizing around $86 after a strong rebound. This is an important decision area for traders. With RSI above 50, buying pressure is building, but it is still not stretched. This setup suggests the near-term bias may be shifting higher.
Fundamental Drivers And Positioning
The technical picture is backed by firm fundamentals, especially a supply shortfall in the physical market. Data for January 2026 showed industrial demand—led by solar and EV manufacturing—outpacing mine supply for a fourth straight year. This has created a structural deficit of more than 194 million ounces. That imbalance can help support prices during pullbacks.
Inflation is also helping demand for silver as a store of value. The early-February CPI report came in at 3.1%, slightly above forecasts. This has cooled expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts this year. That backdrop can make non-yielding metals more appealing.
The 2025 swings are still fresh. Prices moved sideways for long periods, then fell sharply in the third quarter. That drop was followed by a fast rally to the record high near $121 in January, showing how quickly sentiment can change. The current action looks more like consolidation after those extreme moves.
With the upside bias building, traders may look at call options with strikes above the key $92.87 resistance. March or April expiries could give the move time to develop and target the next level near $99.67. This approach aims to follow the recent bullish recovery.
If you are more cautious because of geopolitical risk, a hedge or bearish view could be expressed with put options. A clear break below $86.08 would be the key trigger. Puts near the $80 strike could help protect against a deeper pullback toward the next support zone at $77.67.
Lower volatility, shown by the falling ATR, matters for options. It can lead to cheaper premiums and lower-cost positioning. This differs from the high premiums seen during the sharp swings in late January.
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