Nvidia is set to report Q4 (FY2026) earnings after the bell, as the S&P 500 trades in a tight range. Investors are watching the report against a $66 billion revenue target, ahead of Nvidia’s GTC event next month. Nvidia shares are stuck between $171 and $194, with a midpoint near $182. A key resistance level sits at $196. This is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop that started in November 2025.

Key Earnings Focus

The main focus is on Blackwell chip manufacturing costs, and whether they could pressure Nvidia’s roughly 75% profit margins. Markets also want updates on the Vera Rubin chip architecture ahead of GTC. A move above $194 may run into resistance at $196. If the stock turns lower there, it could fall back toward $182 and $171. If earnings are strong and margin worries ease, a break above $196 could support another test of record highs. The S&P 500 has pulled back from the $7,000 ceiling and is now moving between $6,700 and $6,990. A tighter near-term range has formed between $6,830 and $6,900. The index was rejected at $6,909 (61.8% Fibonacci resistance) and is trading below the 1-hour 200-EMA. The 1-hour Stochastic RSI is rising toward overbought. A strong Nvidia report could lift the index toward $6,990 to $7,000. A weak report could keep trading locked between $6,900 and $6,830.

Options Market Positioning

With Nvidia’s earnings just hours away, options markets are pricing in a huge 15% move in the stock by the end of the week. This high implied volatility suggests traders expect more than a small beat or miss. They are positioned for an event that could change the story around the stock. Demand for downside protection is also rising, with put-call skew at its highest level since the broad tech sell-off in late 2025. For a bullish reaction, the stock likely needs a high-volume break above $194. The bigger test is the $196 resistance. Traders looking to play the upside may consider weekly call options to capture a sharp, short-term move. A clean break above $196 would suggest worries about Blackwell margins were overstated, which could trigger a fast unwind of bearish positions. If results disappoint, or if margin guidance is weak, the $194–$196 area may act as a hard ceiling. A rejection there would support buying puts that target the $182 mid-range, with a possible slide to the $171 support level if the news is especially negative. This would reinforce growing concerns about a slowdown in AI spending, a theme that has picked up since January earnings calls. Beyond today, comments from CEO Jensen Huang could quickly reset options pricing ahead of the March GTC event. Any positive signals about next-generation Vera Rubin chips could lift the value of March and April call options, even if the initial earnings move is small. Longer-dated positions may need to be adjusted based on the tone of the conference call. For the S&P 500, the tight range between $6,830 and $6,900 may favor premium-selling strategies like iron condors. With the index capped below key moving averages and showing signs of fatigue, selling out-of-the-money calls and puts can work if the market stays range-bound. This approach has fit the choppy trade seen since the failed push above $7,000 earlier this month. If Nvidia delivers a strong beat, the S&P 500 could test the top of the mini-range near $6,900 and quickly move toward the psychological $7,000 level. That would be a signal to close bearish index positions and possibly buy short-dated SPY or SPX calls. If Nvidia disappoints, it would confirm the rejection at the $6,909 Fibonacci level and could bring the index down to test support near $6,830. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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