Rabobank links the Iran strikes to a wider US macro strategy under Trumpism, aimed at controlling raw materials and energy flows that China depends on. It says this approach seeks to keep US dominance against what it calls a rising China. The report lists reasons for the timing: a strike opportunity, a reported US fear of an Iranian missile launch, and claims that Iran was rearming. It also says China was about to supply Iran with new advanced missiles, and that India’s Modi had recently promoted an alliance with Israel.

Us Strategy To Control Energy And Materials

Rabobank describes Chinese control of supply chains and rare earths as a US weakness. It says the US response is to place key raw materials that China relies on under US or allied control, where the US can project hard power. It says this logic previously pointed to action in Venezuela, and that Iran is more central because it supplies China with more energy than Venezuela did. Rabobank says that if Iran is “flipped”, it could enable the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and limit China’s Belt and Road role. The report adds that fast regime change, even through a change in the revolutionary guard as in Caracas, could entrench Trumpism. It says oil prices would then fall and stay low, and it dismisses “Middle Power” strategic autonomy options. The strategy to pressure China by controlling its energy sources, which we saw crystalize with the Iran strikes back in 2025, remains the dominant market force. This has created a tense standoff, making oil the primary asset to watch. As Brent crude continues to test the $95 level, any news out of the Persian Gulf causes immediate price swings.

Trading The Volatility Not Direction

We believe the key is to trade the volatility itself rather than picking a direction for oil prices. Buying options, like straddles on WTI futures, allows for profit from a large price move, whether it is up or down. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has been stubbornly holding above 20, signaling that the broader market also expects a major shock. This volatility extends directly to energy sector equities, so options on ETFs like the XLE are a logical play for the coming weeks. We are also watching the US dollar, which has historically strengthened during Middle East crises as investors seek safety. The stakes are incredibly high, especially as we’ve seen reports that China’s seaborne imports of Iranian crude hit a new high of 1.5 million barrels per day in January 2026. The possibility of a sudden resolution, the “quick flip” we talked about in 2025, cannot be dismissed and represents the biggest risk for anyone positioned for a long conflict. A rapid deal that secures the India Middle East Europe Corridor would cause oil prices to plummet, instantly reversing current trends. Therefore, maintaining flexible positions with defined exit points is critical to avoid getting caught on the wrong side of a sudden geopolitical shift. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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