Crude Inventory Surprise In 2025
When we look back to this time in 2025, the EIA report from February 27th showed a significant build in crude oil stocks. That surprise inventory increase of nearly 3.5 million barrels was a clear bearish signal at the time. It suggested weaker demand and kept a lid on WTI prices, which were trading around $78 per barrel. The picture today is very different, as the latest EIA data from the last week of February 2026 showed a draw of 1.8 million barrels. This tightening supply, driven by disciplined OPEC+ production and steady demand, stands in stark contrast to the builds we saw last year. Consequently, WTI is now trading near $85, well above the levels seen after that 2025 report. Given this tighter market, we should position for potential price increases in the coming weeks. Buying call options, particularly on near-term contracts like for April or May delivery, allows for upside exposure with defined risk. This strategy directly counters the bearish sentiment from last year with the bullish reality of today’s inventory draws. Implied volatility in crude options has ticked up to around 32%, higher than the more subdued levels of early 2025, reflecting the market’s expectation of bigger price swings.Using Spreads To Manage Option Costs
For those looking to manage the higher premium costs, using bull call spreads could be a prudent strategy. This approach helps to cheapen the trade while still capturing gains if prices continue their upward trend toward the $90 mark. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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