Silver (XAG/USD) recovered most early losses and traded near $84.00 in Europe on Monday, around $83.90 at the time of reporting. Pressure continued from higher US yields and a firmer US Dollar.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose almost 2% to about 4.22%. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was up 0.5% near 99.35.
CME FedWatch data showed expectations for unchanged rates in the March, April, and June meetings. For July, the probability of rates staying the same rose to 46.7% from 39.3% on Friday.
US petrol prices averaged $3.41 per gallon on Saturday, reported by The New York Times. Middle East conflict-related demand for the US Dollar added to downward pressure on silver.
Spot trading stayed close to the 20-day EMA near $84.75 after a January reversal from above $110. The 14-day RSI held in the 40.00–60.00 range.
Resistance was near $90.00, while support was near $82.00 and then $78.00. A move below $78.00 would point to the mid-$70s.
With the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut interest rates anytime soon, we see continued pressure on silver. The most recent Consumer Price Index data from February 2026 showed inflation holding firm at 3.3%, supporting the Fed’s decision to keep rates elevated. This environment, combined with 10-year Treasury yields hovering near 4.25%, makes holding a non-yielding asset like silver costly for the coming weeks.
The US Dollar Index remains strong, trading near 99.50 as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drive demand for safe-haven currencies. A strong dollar makes silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which typically dampens demand and price. We expect this headwind to persist as long as the dollar remains firm.
Given the technical picture of price being trapped below the $90.00 resistance level, we should consider strategies that profit from sideways or downward movement. Selling call option spreads with strike prices at or above $90.00 could be a prudent way to collect premium while defining our risk. This strategy benefits if silver stays below this key resistance area through the options’ expiration.
Looking back from 2025, we saw a similar situation during the aggressive rate-hiking cycle in 2023 where silver prices were suppressed for extended periods by high interest rates. History suggests that until the market can confidently price in Fed rate cuts, significant upward momentum in silver is unlikely. This historical precedent reinforces a cautious and defensive stance for now.
We must watch the $82.00 support level closely, as a break below this could trigger a faster move toward the $78.00 region. Traders anticipating such a drop could look at buying put options as a way to profit from the downside. This would serve as a hedge against any long positions or as a direct bearish bet on the white metal.
However, we should not ignore silver’s industrial demand component, which could provide underlying support. Recent data from the International Energy Agency for Q4 2025 showed a 15% year-over-year increase in global solar panel manufacturing, a sector that heavily consumes silver. This strong industrial use might prevent a complete price collapse and should be monitored as a potential bullish catalyst.
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