The Euro slipped against the US Dollar on Wednesday, as cautious sentiment linked to the US-Iran war supported the Greenback. US inflation data matched forecasts, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep a cautious approach while inflation stays above its 2% target. EUR/USD traded near 1.1569, just above a near four-month low set earlier in the week, and was down about 0.36% on the day. The pair has trended lower since peaking at 1.2082 on 27 January, its highest since June 2021.

Technical Indicators Overview

Price remains below the 100-day Simple Moving Average near 1.1696. The 14-day RSI fell towards 33, near oversold levels, while the MACD stayed below its signal line and below zero with a negative histogram. The ADX was near 29, pointing to firmer trend conditions. Support levels sit near 1.1500, then 1.1450 and 1.1400, while resistance is near 1.1650 and the 100-day SMA around 1.17. A daily close above 1.1700 would shift focus to 1.1800-1.1825. The Euro is used by 20 EU countries and in 2022 accounted for 31% of FX activity, with over $2.2 trillion average daily turnover. With the US Dollar strengthened by the ongoing US-Iran war and a cautious Federal Reserve, we see the downward trend in EUR/USD continuing. The latest US inflation report, which showed the Consumer Price Index at a persistent 2.9% year-over-year, gives the Fed little reason to consider cutting rates. This backdrop solidifies the dollar’s strength against the euro.

Policy Divergence And Market Bias

The European Central Bank, on the other hand, faces a weaker economic picture, creating a clear policy divergence. Recent data showed German industrial production contracted by 0.5% last month, highlighting the ongoing stagnation we’ve seen since last year. This pressure could force the ECB to consider easing its policy sooner than the Fed, further weighing on the EUR/USD pair. This pattern is not new, as we recall similar economic weakness in the Eurozone throughout much of 2025, which capped any significant rallies for the euro. The current technical setup, with the pair trading well below its 100-day moving average, confirms that sellers remain in firm control. Given this momentum, we expect further downside in the weeks ahead. For those looking to position for this move, buying put options with strike prices at or below the 1.1500 psychological level seems appropriate. A decisive break of this support could accelerate the decline, making these options profitable as we head towards the 1.1450 target. This is a direct way to capitalize on the strengthening bearish trend indicated by the ADX. Alternatively, selling call options or implementing a bear call spread with an upper strike around the 1.1700 resistance level could be an effective strategy. This approach profits from both a falling price and the passage of time, as long as the pair fails to mount a significant recovery above that key technical barrier. It offers a way to generate income while maintaining a bearish bias. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.

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