Long Term Resistance Level
The current monthly candle is around $196.97. The trendline meets price near $210.57, which is treated as a potential turning point rather than an automatic breakout level. One scenario is a move up to about $210.57 followed by rejection. A monthly close back below that area would support a pullback, with $160–$170 noted as an initial target zone. The other scenario is a confirmed monthly close above $210.57. That would break the long-term resistance structure and change the chart outlook. For the short idea, a month-end close above $210.57 would invalidate the setup. This keeps the focus on defined levels and clear conditions.Options Market Positioning
With Chevron up nearly 27% since the start of the year, we are approaching a critical decision point. Recent filings confirmed Berkshire Hathaway increased their stake, while WTI crude futures just broke $95 a barrel amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This fundamental strength is pushing the stock directly into a technical wall that has held firm for almost two decades. This brings us to the multi-decade resistance trendline sitting near $210.57. For derivative traders, the rising implied volatility in options expiring in April and May 2026 is the key signal that the market anticipates a big move. Both out-of-the-money puts and calls have become more expensive, suggesting traders are positioning for either a sharp rejection or a powerful breakout. For those anticipating a rejection, we see traders buying May 2026 puts with strike prices like $190 or $185. This strategy bets that the long-term trendline will hold and send the price back toward the $160-$170 support zone. The defined risk of an options contract makes this an attractive way to play a potential downturn without shorting the stock directly. Conversely, a bullish stance requires patience. A decisive monthly close for March above the $210.57 level would be the trigger to consider buying July 2026 calls, perhaps targeting the $220 or $225 strikes. This would signal a major structural breakout, and we would expect momentum to carry the stock into uncharted territory. More complex strategies like bear put spreads could also be used to lower the cost of entry for a short position. For instance, one might buy the June $205 put and sell the June $190 put to define the risk and reward. This is a play on the stock failing at resistance but finding support before a full collapse. Looking back from our perspective in 2025, we recall how the 2022 rally also stalled at a major high before pulling back significantly. The current setup echoes past cycle tops where fundamentals looked incredibly strong right at the point of technical exhaustion. This historical pattern reinforces why the $210.57 level deserves so much respect from us. The crucial event will be the monthly candle close for March 2026 in about two weeks. If the price is firmly below that trendline, the bearish options plays remain valid, but time decay will become an enemy. If it closes above, the short thesis is invalidated, and the focus must shift to playing a breakout. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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