Us Hiring Momentum Slows
US private-sector hiring data showed slower momentum late in February. The NER Pulse version of the weekly ADP National Employment Report reported an average of 9K jobs per week in the four weeks to February 28, down from 14.5K the previous week. In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to decide on rates on 8 April, with a hold expected. Statistics New Zealand will publish Q4 GDP on Wednesday, with growth forecast at 1.7% year on year. On the 4-hour chart, NZD/USD was at 0.5857, below the 100-period SMA and near the 20-period SMA, with RSI around 50. Resistance levels were 0.5870 and 0.5916, while support was seen at 0.5836 and 0.5816, with recent lows near 0.5800. Looking back at the geopolitical tensions from early 2025, we remember how the conflict in the Middle East caused significant uncertainty. That situation drove a sharp, albeit temporary, spike in WTI crude oil prices, which briefly surpassed $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2025 before pulling back. Traders should therefore consider using options to hedge against sudden flair-ups in geopolitical risk, as these events can rapidly impact commodity-linked currencies like the NZD.Inflation And Policy Divergence
The Federal Reserve did hold interest rates at its March 2025 meeting, but the inflationary pressure from energy prices forced them into a more hawkish stance, leading to a final rate hike in May of that year. We see a similar dynamic now, with the latest February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showing inflation remaining sticky at 2.9%, above the Fed’s target. This reinforces the need to watch inflation data closely, as it remains the primary driver of the Fed’s policy and, consequently, the US Dollar’s strength. In New Zealand, we saw the economy avoid the technical recession that was feared back then, with the Q4 2024 GDP released in March 2025 coming in at 1.9%, slightly above expectations. The RBNZ, which held rates in April 2025, has since been forced to maintain a restrictive policy to battle its own domestic inflation. The interest rate differential between the RBNZ and the Fed will remain a key factor for the NZD/USD pair in the coming weeks. That period in 2025 serves as a reminder of how quickly market focus can shift from weak employment data, like the soft NER Pulse report, to broader inflation risks. The NZD/USD pair eventually broke below the 0.5800 support level mentioned before finding a bottom later that year. Currently, with 30-day implied volatility for NZD/USD options sitting near 12-month lows of around 9.2%, the market may be underpricing the risk of a sudden shock. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
Start trading now – Click here to create your real VT Markets account
