Upside Scenario For Usd Vnd
In a downside scenario, MUFG set out USD/VND at 27,700 or higher if oil holds at US$120/bbl and energy shortages occur. The report linked the currency move to energy shocks and stagflation risks. MUFG described Vietnam as less exposed than India and the Philippines within Asia ex-Japan. It also said energy shortages could still affect Vietnam through weaker manufacturing activity and slower global growth. With Brent crude futures holding firm above $105 per barrel, the base case scenario for USD/VND is already under pressure. The spot rate has breached the 26,500 level this week, far exceeding the expected 26,300 for the end of this month. We believe this reflects a market pricing in prolonged conflict in the Middle East, making a simple de-escalation seem unlikely. In the coming weeks, we should consider strategies that benefit from a rising USD/VND exchange rate and increased volatility. This includes looking at USD call options or VND put options with strike prices around 27,000 for the second quarter. Non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) also offer a way to lock in a favorable rate now, anticipating further dong weakness.Strategy And Tail Risk Monitoring
This situation feels similar to the pressures we saw back in 2022 when the conflict in Ukraine began and energy prices soared. Vietnam’s February import data already showed a 15% year-on-year jump in its energy bill, and headline inflation has ticked up to 4.8%. While Vietnam is more resilient than its peers, this stagflationary pressure will weigh on the currency. The key tail risk to monitor is a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could push oil towards the $120 per barrel mark. In that scenario, a move toward 27,700 for USD/VND becomes highly probable. We should model these outcomes as the risk of a sustained energy shock appears to be growing. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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