Supply Measures And Policy Signals
The White House issued a temporary waiver of the Jones Act for 60 days, letting foreign vessels move fuel between US ports. The US Treasury also signalled possible steps to add supply, including easing limits on some Iranian volumes or using strategic reserves. Tension in the Middle East increased after Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars gas field and Iranian retaliation aimed at energy infrastructure in Qatar. Attacks were also reported on facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, raising disruption risks. The UK, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan issued a joint statement on stabilising energy markets. They said they could work with producer countries to increase supply and support transit security through the Strait of Hormuz, and called on Iran to stop threats and attacks. Rabobank cited risks of infrastructure damage, lasting supply cuts, and possible export limits by the US. Geopolitical risk kept a price premium in place, limiting further falls.Market Outlook And Trading Approach
As we stand on March 19, 2026, WTI is trading firmly around $105.15 per barrel, showing that the geopolitical risks we saw escalating in late 2025 have become the market’s dominant theme. The supply-side measures from last year, such as the temporary Jones Act waiver and the partial easing of Venezuelan sanctions, proved to be short-term fixes. The underlying tension from continued attacks in the Middle East has provided a strong floor for prices. The latest March 2026 report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) now points to a persistent global supply deficit of approximately 0.5 million barrels per day, adding fundamental support to the high prices. Over 20% of the world’s daily oil consumption still passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that remains under constant threat. This sustained risk keeps the geopolitical premium firmly embedded in the current crude price. This environment of high uncertainty has pushed implied volatility in the options market to elevated levels, sitting near 45% for front-month contracts. For traders, this makes strategies that profit from sharp upward moves particularly attractive. We believe traders should consider buying call options or using bull call spreads to capture potential price spikes from any further supply disruptions. The market dynamics feel very similar to the period after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when geopolitical headlines drove rapid and significant price swings. Therefore, focusing on shorter-dated options that expire in April or May 2026 could be a capital-efficient way to trade the ongoing headline risk. These instruments allow for tactical plays on near-term volatility without the need for a long-term directional commitment. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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