Global Supply Stress And Policy Response
He said fuel shortages are an increasing issue in Asia. He also said the Australian government is working to increase fuel stock levels. He said at least 40 energy assets in the region are severely or very severely damaged across nine countries. After the comments, crude prices edged higher, with West Texas Intermediate up 0.66% at $97.85. The ongoing situation in the Middle East has created a severe supply shock, which is the primary driver of current market dynamics. We are seeing West Texas Intermediate crude holding firm above $115 per barrel, even after a coordinated release of 90 million barrels in January 2026 failed to sustainably lower prices. The market now understands that strategic reserves are a temporary patch, not a solution to the physical bottleneck. Volatility is extremely high, with the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) consistently trading above 60, a level indicating significant market stress. This makes purchasing options costly, so traders should consider strategies that benefit from this, such as selling premium through credit spreads or covered calls. The high cost of insurance itself reflects the market’s deep uncertainty about the near-term supply outlook.Market Structure And Trading Implications
Any new discussions about releasing more oil stocks should be viewed as a signal to expect a short-term dip in prices. However, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz still under 20% of their pre-crisis levels, any such price weakness will likely be met with strong buying. The core issue of 40 damaged energy assets and a blocked strait means the structural deficit remains firmly in place. The futures curve is in a state of steep backwardation, where near-term contracts are much more expensive than long-term ones. This structure, which we expect to persist, clearly shows the acute shortage for immediate physical delivery. Calendar spread trades, which profit from this shape, should remain a core strategy until there is a clear path to reopening the key waterway. Looking back from the relative stability of early 2025, the market assumptions we held then are now completely irrelevant. We have shifted from a demand-focused environment to a supply-driven crisis worse than those of the 1970s. The current crisis is defined by physical infrastructure damage and geopolitical stalemate, not just production cuts. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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