Greece’s current account balance improved year on year in January. The deficit narrowed to €-1.286B from €-3.862B previously.
The latest figure means the shortfall was €2.576B smaller than a year earlier. The balance remained in deficit.
We see the sharp improvement in Greece’s current account as a clear bullish indicator for Greek assets. This significant reduction in the deficit points to a strengthening external position for the economy. The data suggests that the country is becoming more competitive and less reliant on foreign capital.
This positive trend is underpinned by real data from last year, as the Hellenic Statistical Authority confirmed that 2025 tourism revenue was over 15% higher than pre-pandemic levels. With forward bookings for the upcoming season looking equally strong, this services-led improvement appears sustainable. We should anticipate this will directly benefit stocks in the hospitality and transport sectors.
The shrinking deficit greatly reduces the perceived risk of holding Greek government debt. We expect this will cause Greek bond yields to fall further and spreads over German bunds to tighten in the coming weeks. Traders should consider positioning for this by buying Greek government bonds or selling credit default swaps.
For equity derivatives, this news supports a long position on the Athex Composite Index. Buying call options on an index ETF or on major Greek banks offers a direct way to gain exposure to the expected upside. We saw a similar setup in 2024 when a positive economic surprise led to a multi-month rally in Greek equities.
A key structural factor is the lower energy import bill, a direct result of the expanded LNG terminal capacity that came online in late 2025. This has made the economy more resilient, suggesting the current account improvement is not just a temporary boost. This strengthens the case for a longer-term positive re-rating of Greek assets.
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