Ceasefire Talks And Market Risk
Axios, cited by Bloomberg, reported that the US and Iran are discussing a 45-day ceasefire. Such a move could reduce geopolitical risk and affect safe-haven demand. Easing tensions can reduce demand for precious metals, but higher inflation projections linked to the war may lead to tighter central bank policy. That environment can pressure non-yielding assets such as silver. This week, attention turns to the US Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the March meeting, due on Wednesday. XAG/USD is near $72.50, with resistance near the 20-day EMA at $75.20 and support around $70.00, then $66.70 and $61.00. The RSI is at 43, and the price remains below the 20-day EMA. The story notes an AI-assisted technical section and a correction to the deadline time.Looking Back At Early 2025
We are looking back at the tense situation in early 2025 when silver was trading near $72.50. The market was completely frozen by the US ultimatum to Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. This period of extreme uncertainty shows how quickly geopolitical risk can become the single most important factor for precious metals. The feared escalation never happened, as the rumored 45-day ceasefire eventually paved the way for a broader de-escalation of the conflict. As the threat of war faded, so did the safe-haven demand for silver. This confirms the classic theory that easing global tensions is bearish for precious metals, a lesson we saw play out through the rest of 2025. The other major headwind for silver was the fight against inflation, which kept central banks hawkish. We can see from recent data that after US inflation peaked near 5% late last year, the Consumer Price Index has only just cooled to 3.8% as of March 2026. This persistent inflation is why the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates elevated, making non-yielding silver a less attractive asset to hold. Today, with silver trading near $45, those support levels from 2025 around $70.00 and $66.70 are now massive long-term resistance zones. For derivative traders, this means any strong rally toward those prices should be viewed as a selling opportunity. The entire market structure has shifted downwards since the resolution of that crisis. Implied volatility in silver options was extremely high during the 2025 standoff, making it expensive to place bets. In the coming weeks, with volatility now much lower, traders can use strategies like buying put options more affordably to position for further weakness. This offers a defined-risk way to act on the view that sticky inflation and high rates will continue to weigh on the price. Create your live VT Markets account and start trading now.
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