US President Donald Trump spoke to reporters outside the White House on Thursday about the confrontation with Iran. He said the US was making a lot of progress with Iran and that a deal could be close.
Trump said he was not sure a ceasefire needed to be extended. He said Iran was willing to do things they previously were not prepared to do.
Deal Signals And Geopolitical Risk
He said that if there was no deal with Iran, fighting would resume. He also said Iran had agreed it would not have a nuclear weapon.
Trump said Iran had agreed to give back “the nuclear dust”. He added that Iran had agreed to almost everything.
He said that if an Iran deal was signed in Islamabad, he might go to China.
These statements signal that a deal with Iran is being presented as highly probable, which suggests a coming drop in market volatility. The primary risk is a sudden reversal if talks collapse, as the alternative is a return to fighting. Derivative traders should position for a significant decline in geopolitical risk premium over the next few weeks.
Oil Market And Volatility Trades
We see the most direct impact on oil prices, which are currently trading at $87 for a barrel of WTI. The potential return of over 1.3 million barrels of Iranian oil per day to the market would create significant downward pressure. We should consider buying June puts on WTI or selling call spreads to capitalize on a potential price drop towards the low $80s.
This de-escalation would also crush implied volatility across asset classes. The VIX index, which has been hovering around 18 due to these tensions, could quickly fall back toward its 15-point average. Selling VIX futures or out-of-the-money calls expiring in May seems like a prudent strategy.
Lower energy costs and reduced global tension would be a tailwind for the broader stock market. This suggests a bullish stance on equity indices like the S&P 500. We believe buying call options on SPY with a June expiration could provide upside exposure to a relief rally.
However, we must remember the tensions from last fall in 2025, which showed how quickly the situation can deteriorate. The comment that fighting will resume if there is no deal is a clear warning. A small allocation to cheap, long-dated put options on equities can serve as an effective hedge if this optimism proves misplaced.
A peace dividend would likely pressure the defense sector, which rallied throughout the confrontations in 2025. We could see a rotation out of these names as the threat of a major conflict subsides. Buying puts on defense ETFs or major contractors could be a profitable contrarian play against the recent run-up.
