USD/CHF fell 0.15% to about 0.7825 in Friday’s European session. The move came as reduced optimism about a permanent US–Iran ceasefire lowered demand for safe-haven assets.
The US Dollar Index was 0.1% lower near 98.08. It was close to its over six-week low of 97.83 set on Thursday.
Ceasefire Uncertainty And Fed Expectations
US President Donald Trump said the US was “very close to a deal with Iran”. He also said military action would resume if no deal is reached, and that Iran is willing to give up enriched uranium and drop nuclear plans.
Markets have fully removed expectations for hawkish Federal Reserve policy this year. Oil prices have stayed capped amid Iran truce hopes, which has held down global inflation expectations.
Technically, USD/CHF remains below the 20-period EMA at 0.7883, keeping a bearish near-term tone. The daily chart shows a Bearish Flag, and the RSI (14) is around 42.
Support sits near 0.7798, then 0.7748 and 0.7710. Resistance is near 0.7850, then 0.7883, with 0.7934 above.
Then Versus Now Market Regime Shift
Last year, around this time in 2025, we saw significant bearish pressure on USD/CHF, with the pair trading near 0.7825. This weakness was largely driven by a softer US Dollar as the market priced out Federal Reserve rate hikes. The technical picture then showed a Bearish Flag, pointing to more downside.
The environment today in April 2026 could not be more different, as central bank policy has diverged sharply. The Swiss National Bank became one of the first major banks to cut interest rates, having recently done so in March 2026 as Swiss inflation fell to just 1.2%. Meanwhile, recent US inflation data for March 2026 came in at a stubborn 2.9%, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold and unlikely to cut rates soon.
This growing interest rate differential in favor of the US Dollar has pushed USD/CHF significantly higher, with the pair now trading around 0.9120. The technical setup we saw in 2025 is a distant memory, replaced by a clear and sustained uptrend. The old support levels from last year are no longer relevant in the current market structure.
Given this backdrop, we believe derivative traders should consider strategies that benefit from further strength in the US Dollar against the Swiss Franc. Buying USD/CHF call options with strike prices around 0.9200 and 0.9250 for May and June 2026 expiries could be a way to position for a continued move higher. This strategy allows traders to capitalize on the upward momentum driven by central bank policy.
However, we must remain aware of the risks from incoming US economic data. A sudden and unexpected drop in US inflation or a weak jobs report could quickly alter the Fed’s stance and cause a sharp reversal in the pair. Therefore, using bull call spreads could be a more conservative approach to limit upfront costs while still maintaining a bullish bias.
