Oil prices are steady slightly above $90 per barrel, based on TD Securities’ base case. Brent has traded between $90 and $100 per barrel since the ceasefire began.
Trading has suggested acceptance of prices around current levels, with limited movement above that area. The note links this to ongoing tensions.
Middle East Risk And Market Focus
Uncertainty around Middle East developments remains in focus. Attention is also on whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open, closes, or shows mixed conditions.
The report says markets are moving towards a view that energy prices will settle near current levels. The article was produced using an AI tool and checked by an editor.
We are seeing Brent oil prices holding steady in a $90 to $100 per barrel range, and our base case is that this will continue for now. This stability follows the ceasefire that began in late February 2026, which has calmed the market’s immediate fears. Traders seem comfortable with these prices, balancing the risk of Middle East tensions with solid global demand.
For the next few weeks, this suggests that selling volatility could be a primary strategy for us. We should look at option structures like iron condors on June and July contracts, with short strikes placed just outside this expected $90-100 channel. This approach is designed to profit from the price remaining range-bound and time decay.
Volatility Strategy And Range Expectations
This view is supported by the CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX), which has settled around 38 after spiking above 55 earlier in the year. Additionally, recent statements from the OPEC+ monitoring committee confirmed they will hold production quotas steady through the second quarter. These factors provide a fundamental floor and ceiling that reinforces the current trading range.
The key uncertainty is the Strait of Hormuz, which is keeping a floor under implied volatility. However, maritime tracking data for April shows tanker transits are down only about 5% from the Q4 2025 average, indicating the disruption risk is a premium rather than a physical reality at this moment. This makes selling that premium attractive, but it demands close attention.
Looking back at the sharp volatility we experienced through much of 2025, the current calm feels fragile. That period taught us how quickly geopolitical headlines can invalidate a range. Therefore, while we favor selling premium, we must maintain disciplined stops and consider holding some cheap, far out-of-the-money options to hedge against a sudden breakout.
