US services activity slowed in April, as the ISM Services PMI eased to 53.6 from 54. The reading was below analysts’ expectations.
The Prices Paid Index held at 70.7. The Employment Index rose to 48 from 45.2.
Service Sector Signals
The New Orders Index fell to 53.5 from 60.6. After the release, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moved in a 98.50–98.40 range.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the pace of economic growth over a period, usually a quarter. It is often compared with the prior quarter, the same quarter a year earlier, or shown as an annualised quarterly rate.
GDP can affect currencies through growth, trade, and capital flows. It can also affect gold via interest-rate expectations, as higher rates raise the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Economic activity in the services sector has cooled more than expected, with the latest ISM reading for April coming in at 51.4. This figure is below the consensus forecast and marks a continued deceleration from the stronger pace we saw late last year. The slowdown suggests the economy is losing momentum heading into the second quarter.
Market Strategy Outlook
Digging into the details, the Prices Paid component remains stubbornly high at 68.5, a sign that inflation pressures are not easing as quickly as hoped. More concerning for future growth is the New Orders Index, which plunged to 50.8, barely holding in expansion territory. This follows the weaker-than-expected GDP print of 1.8% we received for the first quarter of this year.
This combination of slowing growth and persistent inflation puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position, likely keeping interest rate cuts off the table for the summer. This supports the US Dollar, but the weak growth data will cap its upside potential. We expect the US Dollar Index (DXY) to be caught in a range, with traders likely selling options to capitalize on this expected lack of clear direction.
For equity derivatives, the slowing New Orders figure is a bearish signal for future corporate earnings, particularly in the tech and consumer discretionary sectors. We saw how similar slowdowns in 2025 preceded periods of market consolidation. Traders should consider buying protection, such as puts on the S&P 500, or using VIX call options to hedge against a potential spike in volatility in the coming weeks.
Higher-for-longer interest rates are typically a headwind for non-yielding assets like gold. However, the increasing concerns about economic slowing could boost its appeal as a safe-haven asset. This creates a two-way pull, suggesting that gold futures might see increased volatility without a clear trend until the next major inflation or jobs report.
