The Nasdaq 100 rose from 24,750 to nearly 29,500 in 6 weeks from early April 2026, a gain of about 19%. It has since started a bearish pullback on the daily chart.
A break below Monday’s low confirms a retest of the ET zone 8. The main near-term scenario over the next 1–2 weeks is a bearish break, pullback, and decline.
The pullback could move towards support around 28,000–28,250, which aligns with the 21 EMA zone on the daily chart. A continuation of the uptrend with a new higher high is also mapped, based on the earlier bullish impulse.
An immediate bullish move is discussed, but only after a bounce at the 21 EMA, a break through resistance, and a renewed rally. These outcomes are shown as alternative paths on the daily chart.
On the four-hour chart, exhaustion signals appeared before the pullback began. Price is testing the 21 EMA zone, described as a key decision area.
A bullish bounce is expected, followed by a larger pullback towards the 144 EMA, forming an ABC correction within wave 4. Uptrend continuation is linked to price holding above the 144–233 EMA zone on the four-hour chart.
We have seen an impressive 19% gain in the Nasdaq since early April, driven by strong Q1 earnings in the tech sector and recent inflation data that came in slightly below expectations at 2.9%. The current pullback from the 29,500 level seems to be healthy profit-taking rather than a major reversal. This presents a key moment for us to plan our next moves.
For the immediate one to two weeks, a bearish stance appears to be the most probable path. The break below Monday’s low suggests we could test the support zone around 28,000-28,250. Traders could use this opportunity to purchase put options or initiate short futures positions to capitalize on this expected downward move.
This type of pullback is not unfamiliar; we saw similar sharp, but temporary, dips during the bull run of 2025 before the market pushed to new highs. Historical data shows that in strong uptrends like this one, corrections to the 21-day moving average often serve as reloading zones for bulls. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has only risen modestly to 14.5, indicating a lack of widespread fear in the market.
Therefore, we must watch for signs of stabilization at that 28,000 support level. A bounce from this area would be the signal to begin unwinding short positions and prepare for a return to the primary uptrend. The market’s underlying strength is confirmed by the fact that over 85% of Nasdaq 100 components are still trading above their 200-day moving average.
Once a bottom is confirmed, likely by a strong bullish candle on the daily chart, the strategy should shift to long positions. Buying call options or NQ100 futures would be the way to play the expected next wave up. This potential move could see the index break through the recent highs and target the 30,000 psychological level in the weeks ahead.
