NOK/SEK has risen by about 11% year-to-date, as Norway’s central bank shifted to a more hawkish stance while Sweden’s Riksbank kept policy unchanged. This move followed sticky inflation pressures in Norway and a Norges Bank rate hike last week, on the same day the Riksbank stayed on hold.
Norway’s role as an energy exporter is also cited as a factor supporting the Norwegian krone. In Sweden, fiscal policy is expected to support consumption and may add to underlying inflation pressures.
Rabobank’s FX Strategy team expects possible further gains in NOK/SEK in the coming months. Its approach is to buy NOK/SEK on pullbacks, with a three-month target of 1.02.
Looking back, the divergence in central bank policy we saw during 2025 was a powerful driver for the Norwegian krone against the Swedish krona. The strategy to buy NOK/SEK on dips proved successful, as the pair climbed past the 1.02 target that year. This move was fueled by the Norges Bank hiking rates to combat inflation while the Riksbank remained on hold.
Today, on May 14, 2026, a similar but evolved policy gap is again supporting the krone. Just last week, Sweden’s Riksbank cut its key interest rate to 3.75%, citing progress on inflation. In stark contrast, Norges Bank is holding its own policy rate firm at 4.50% and has signaled it will remain there longer than previously expected.
The underlying economic data justifies this divergence. Sweden’s latest inflation report showed a decline to 2.3%, a figure that gave the Riksbank confidence to begin easing its policy. Meanwhile, Norway is still grappling with stickier core inflation, which was last reported at 4.4%, forcing its central bank to maintain a hawkish stance.
For derivative traders, this reinforces the case for being long NOK/SEK in the coming weeks. We believe purchasing call options on the currency pair with a two-to-three-month expiry is a prudent way to position for further upside. This strategy allows traders to capitalize on a potential move higher while clearly defining their maximum risk.
Norway’s status as an energy exporter also provides a supportive backdrop, with Brent crude prices holding steady around $83 per barrel. Given the renewed policy divergence, we are now looking for dips toward the 1.0300 level as fresh buying opportunities. Our updated view is for a move towards the 1.0600 area over the next three months.
