US total net TIC flows fell in March to $150.7bn, down from $184.5bn in the previous period.
The data indicates a month-on-month decrease of $33.8bn in total net cross-border capital flows tracked by the Treasury International Capital system.
March Reading Still Shows Net Inflow
The March reading remains above zero, meaning there was still net inflow overall during the month.
The figures refer to total net TIC flows for the United States and compare the latest month with the prior reported level.
The drop in net TIC flows to $150.7B for March shows a clear cooling of foreign appetite for U.S. assets. While still a positive inflow, this slowdown is the second consecutive monthly decline and suggests the peak enthusiasm we saw at the start of the year is fading. This trend forces us to question the durability of support for both the U.S. dollar and Treasury markets in the coming weeks.
Our immediate focus should be on the U.S. dollar, as reduced foreign buying directly translates to weaker demand. With last month’s April CPI data coming in stubbornly high at 3.1%, the Federal Reserve is locked into its hawkish stance, but this isn’t attracting capital as it did in 2025. We should consider buying puts on dollar-tracking ETFs or establishing short positions in USD futures, anticipating a drift lower.
Implications For Yields Volatility And Equities
This waning foreign demand puts upward pressure on Treasury yields. As foreign central banks become less reliable buyers, the burden falls on domestic investors who will demand higher yields to absorb the supply. We see an opportunity in VIX call options or bear-put spreads on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), as a disorderly rise in yields would certainly spike market volatility.
For equity markets, this trend is a subtle but significant headwind, removing a key source of liquidity that has supported valuations. The S&P 500 has climbed over 8% since January, but recent CFTC data already shows institutional investors trimming their net long positions in equity futures for the first time in five months. We are positioning for this by purchasing out-of-the-money puts on the Nasdaq 100 as a hedge, since high-growth tech is most sensitive to changes in long-term interest rates.
