WPIC forecasts a platinum supply deficit of 297,000 ounces this year, which would be the fourth year in a row with a shortfall. Above-ground stocks are expected to fall to 1.747 million ounces, with a stock-to-use ratio of 22%.
At that level, stocks would cover less than three months of demand in 2026. An earlier forecast had put this year’s inventories at 2.613 million ounces.
Supply Deficit Versus Near Term Surprise
WPIC data also show easing tightness, as Q1 recorded a supply surplus of 268,000 ounces. This compares with a Q1 deficit of 658,000 ounces a year earlier, and was the first surplus in six quarters.
Platinum demand is expected to drop 9% this year to 7.674 million ounces, a four-year low. Investment demand is expected to more than halve, linked to net outflows from platinum ETFs and lower exchange-registered stocks.
Commerzbank expects platinum to reach USD 2,300 per troy ounce by year-end. This projection is mainly based on a forecast rise in the gold price.
We are seeing a market with a clear supply deficit for the fourth consecutive year, which should be supportive of prices. Above-ground inventories are forecast to cover less than three months of demand, a historically tight level. However, the market saw a surprise supply surplus in the first quarter of this year, and overall demand is projected to hit a four-year low.
Implications For Price Action
This weak demand picture, especially from the investment side, is a major headwind for the coming weeks. Looking back at 2025, investment demand was a key pillar of support, but we now expect it to be cut in half this year. Recent data from May 2026 shows continued outflows from platinum-backed ETFs, with the GraniteShares Platinum Trust (PLTM) losing over 40,000 ounces in assets since April.
The underlying supply deficit provides a safety net, as any unexpected disruption at a major mine in South Africa could cause a rapid price squeeze. We only have to look back to the power supply issues of the late 2000s to see how quickly platinum can react when inventories are this low. This fundamental tightness suggests that downside price risk is likely limited from current levels.
Ultimately, platinum seems to lack the strength to rally on its own and will likely follow gold’s lead. Gold has been trading in a tight range around $2,420 per ounce for several weeks, awaiting more clarity on global interest rate direction. A breakout in gold above $2,500 would almost certainly pull platinum higher with it.
Given this conflict between weak immediate demand and a tight long-term supply, derivative traders should consider strategies that manage risk. Buying call options or call spreads allows for upside participation if gold rallies, but with a defined and limited risk if demand continues to soften. Selling out-of-the-money puts could also be a way to collect premium while setting a lower target price to get long the metal if the bearish sentiment temporarily pushes prices down.
