Key Points
- SP500 traded at 7,530.65, down 26.25, or 0.35%, after reaching a session high of 7,557.85.
- Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.83%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.62%, and Dow futures climbed 0.59% at 9.12 p.m. ET.
- WTI crude traded around $91.18, down 5.6%, while Brent crude traded near $97.44, up 1.35%.
- The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,473.47, up 0.37%, extending its longest weekly winning streak since 2023.
US stock futures edged higher heading into Tuesday as traders priced a better chance of a US-Iran deal that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.83%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.62%, and Dow futures gained 0.59% at 9.12 p.m. ET.
The chart showed SP500 trading at 7,530.65, down 26.25, or 0.35%, at 05/26 05:01:23 GMT+3. The session high stood at 7,557.85, with a low of 7,524.20, an open at 7,557.10, and a close at 7,556.90.
The pullback looks more like digestion than a trend break. The index remains close to record levels after Friday’s gains, when the S&P 500 closed at 7,473.47, up 0.37%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.58% to 50,579.70, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.19% to 26,343.97. US markets were shut on Monday for Memorial Day.
Iran Talks Lift Risk Appetite
Equities drew support from signs that US-Iran negotiations are moving toward a framework that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains central to the market story because it carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments, so even partial progress can shift inflation expectations, bond yields, and equity sentiment.
Global stocks rose after Trump said talks to end the Iran war were progressing, while oil prices fell sharply on hopes of reduced disruption.
Trump said negotiations with Iran were proceeding well, but he kept pressure on Tehran by warning that the alternative would be a return to heavier fighting. That tone keeps markets in a fragile relief phase. Traders are buying the chance of a deal, but they are not fully removing the war premium.
Reports also suggest the US and Iran are working on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz about 30 days after a deal is reached, with Iran clearing mines so ships can pass safely. At the same time, the US military conducted self-defence strikes in southern Iran against missile sites and boats attempting to place mines. That split keeps traders alert to both outcomes: diplomacy can lower oil, but battlefield activity can quickly reverse the move.
Fed Risk Has Not Disappeared
Markets are also watching Kevin Warsh’s first official day as Federal Reserve chair. Inflation concerns have already revived debate over whether the Fed may need to raise rates, rather than cut them.
The new Fed leadership inherits a difficult setup. Oil shocks have pushed inflation pressure higher, consumer sentiment has weakened, and officials are under pressure to show credibility on price stability. Warsh pledged to lead a reform-focused Fed as markets watched for how he would handle inflation and policy divisions.
The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.504%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, TLT, rose about 0.41% amid bullish sentiment. A stable bond market helps equities hold gains. A renewed rise in yields would make high-valuation technology stocks more exposed.
Gold slipped to around $4,542.57 an ounce, showing that some safety demand faded as risk appetite improved. Still, gold remains high enough to show traders have not fully dismissed geopolitical and inflation risks.
Retail Earnings And Consumers Stay In Focus
The S&P 500’s next test goes beyond geopolitics. Retail earnings will show whether higher fuel prices and tighter financial conditions have started to bite US consumers.
The key issue is household resilience. Higher gasoline prices can drain disposable income, while higher rates can curb big-ticket purchases. If retail guidance weakens, traders may start to question whether the S&P 500 can keep climbing on AI and energy relief alone.
Friday’s US market strength showed buyers still have confidence. The S&P 500 posted its longest streak of weekly gains since 2023, while the Dow reached a 52-week high. That momentum gives the market support, but the next batch of earnings needs to confirm that demand has not cracked.
Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 remains firmly in an uptrend, holding near fresh highs above the 7,500 mark despite a modest pullback during the latest session.
- Current Price: 7,530
- MA5: 7,488
- MA10: 7,458
- MA20: 7,377
Price action continues to respect the rising short-term moving averages, with the MA5 and MA10 still stacked bullishly above the MA20. The rally from the April low near 6,318 remains intact, though momentum has begun to cool after the sharp breakout phase earlier this month.
The recent pause suggests traders may be taking profit ahead of key US inflation and Federal Reserve signals, especially as Treasury yields stabilise and markets reassess the timing of future rate cuts.
Immediate resistance sits near 7,560–7,600, while support rests around 7,450, followed by the stronger trend support zone near 7,300. A clean break above current highs could reopen the path toward the 7,650 region.
The broader structure stays bullish while price holds above the MA20 and macro risk sentiment remains supportive.
Cautious Forecast
SP500 maintains a bullish short-term bias as long as it holds above 7,487.93 and 7,377.48. A break above 7,557.85 would support a move toward 7,663.48, especially if oil stays below $100 and Iran talks keep moving toward a Hormuz reopening plan.
A break below 7,377.48 would weaken the setup and suggest traders are taking profit after the longest weekly winning streak since 2023. The next move depends on three signals: whether US-Iran talks produce a clear reopening timeline, whether oil stays near $91.18 to $97.44, and whether Kevin Warsh’s Fed gives markets reason to price fewer or more rate hikes.
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Trader Questions
Why Are S&P 500 Futures Rising?
S&P 500 futures are rising as investors price in hopes of a US-Iran deal that could eventually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease energy-market stress. S&P 500 futures were 0.62% higher, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.83% and Dow futures rose 0.59% at 9.12 p.m. ET.
What Is The Current SP500 Price?
SP500 traded at 7,530.65, down 26.25, or 0.35%. The session high was 7,557.85, with a low of 7,524.20, an open at 7,557.10, and a close at 7,556.90.
Why Is The Strait Of Hormuz Important For The S&P 500?
The Strait of Hormuz is important because it carries about a fifth of global oil and gas shipments. A reopening would ease energy supply risk, lower inflation pressure, and support risk appetite. That can help US equities, especially consumer, transport, industrial, and technology stocks.
How Are US-Iran Talks Affecting Stocks?
US-Iran talks are supporting stocks by raising hopes that the Middle East energy shock may ease. Trump said negotiations with Iran “are proceeding nicely”, but also warned that it would be “a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all”.
Why Are Investors Still Cautious?
Investors remain cautious because the US-Iran deal is not final and military risks remain active. Reports suggest the Strait of Hormuz could reopen about 30 days after a deal, but the US also carried out self-defence strikes on southern Iran against missile sites and boats attempting to place mines.
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