Emini S&P June futures have yet to reach the 7590/7595 target, after dipping into support at 7530/7520; long positions are framed with stops below 7510. The contract has rebounded to 7548, with scope towards 7555 and then a retest of the 7569 record. A break above that high would reopen 7590/7595 and could extend to 7645/7655, while a drop through 7510 would risk 7490/7485, with further support flagged at 7465/7460.
Emini Nasdaq June futures moved above the 29,782 all-time high to trigger a buy signal, and the initial 29,950/30,000 objective has already been met, leaving 30,450/30,490 as the next target. First support is marked at 29,750/29,650, with stops below 29,550 on any retest. Emini Dow Jones June futures had cleared 50,292 to set 50,630/50,690 and 50,940/50,990, both of which were achieved before printing a new high at 51,209 and then selling off; support sits at 50,300/50,200 with stops below 50,000, while a renewed push above the peak would point to 52,050/52,150.
S&P 500 Futures Outlook and Risk Levels
For the Emini S&P, we are watching the 7530/20 support level closely. As long as we hold above our stop at 7510, we remain confident in a move towards the 7590/95 target in the next week or two. The market seems to be digesting last week’s Core PCE data, which came in at a surprisingly low 2.1% year-over-year, bolstering the case for a continued rally.
A break below 7510 would be a significant warning sign for our bullish stance. This could indicate the market is worried about the upcoming May non-farm payrolls report, potentially shifting the narrative towards a hard landing. In that scenario, we would expect a quick slide towards the 7465/60 support area.
Nasdaq and Dow: Leadership, Divergence, and Trading Strategy
The Nasdaq is clearly the market leader and our preferred long position. After breaking its all-time high, it continues to show incredible strength, driven by the ongoing boom in AI-related stocks which have seen earnings grow by over 30% year-on-year. Our next major target remains 30450/490, and we will use any retest of the 29750/29650 area to add to positions.
This kind of narrow, tech-led rally is reminiscent of market conditions in the late 1990s. While we are riding the trend, we are also cautious of the divergence with other indices. We are keeping our stops tight below 29550 because when leadership is this narrow, sentiment can shift very quickly.
The Dow’s unexpected collapse after hitting a new high at 51209 is a point of concern. This signals a rotation out of industrial and financial stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rates and global growth fears. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has remained relatively low, currently sitting around 14.5, but a spike driven by weakness in the Dow could spill over into the broader market.
Given this divergence, our strategy for the coming weeks is to overweight Nasdaq futures while being more selective with S&P positions. A break above the Dow’s all-time high could still target 52050/52150, but we will wait for support at 50300/50200 to prove solid before re-engaging on the long side.
