USD/CAD gave up earlier gains on Friday as a softer US Dollar allowed the Canadian Dollar to recover despite weaker Canadian growth data. The pair was trading near 1.3780 after touching 1.3829 earlier in the US session. Hopes of a potential US-Iran deal reduced safe-haven demand for the Greenback, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) back below 99.00 against a basket of six major currencies.
Markets were also focused on whether US President Donald Trump would grant final approval to a proposed 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had not confirmed the agreement, keeping uncertainty elevated, while Tehran maintained that shipping through the strait remains under its control and the US said the route must stay unrestricted. In Canada, Statistics Canada reported GDP contracted 0.1% in Q1 on an annualised basis versus expectations for 1.5% growth, marking a second consecutive quarterly decline, and March GDP fell 0.1% after a 0.2% gain in February despite forecasts for no change. Separately, The Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration may seek USMCA changes requiring 50% of a vehicle’s components to be made in the United States.
Conflicting Economic Signals and North American Divergence
We are seeing the USD/CAD pair pivot around the 1.3650 level as the market digests conflicting economic signals from North America. The Canadian Dollar is under pressure following recent domestic data that disappointed traders. This contrasts with a more resilient economic picture in the United States, setting up a key divergence for us to watch.
Canada’s economy is a major concern, with the latest report from Statistics Canada showing Q1 annualized GDP growth at only 1.2%, missing the 1.7% consensus forecast. This softness increases the probability that the Bank of Canada will be forced to consider an interest rate cut in the third quarter. This outlook is weighing on the CAD and makes it vulnerable to further declines against the US dollar.
On the other side, the US Dollar is losing some of its safe-haven appeal due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically regarding passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has subsequently pulled back to the 104.75 area from its recent highs. This geopolitical calm, if it holds, removes a key pillar of support for the greenback.
Derivative Market Implications and Trade Agreement Risks
For derivative traders, this creates a compelling setup for the coming weeks, as implied volatility in USD/CAD options has ticked higher. We believe the growing policy divergence between a potentially dovish Bank of Canada and a more patient Federal Reserve will be the primary driver of price action. This environment is favorable for strategies that can profit from a clear directional move, such as buying call options to bet on a higher USD/CAD.
We are also keeping a close watch on upcoming discussions related to the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Any renewed rhetoric about revisiting trade terms could introduce sudden volatility, making this a key risk factor. This underlying uncertainty supports using option spreads to carefully define risk on any new positions.
