Gold has trailed the broader commodity basket as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue without an agreement, while oil and base metals have been supported by elevated supply risks. Precious metals rose late last week after headlines pointed to an imminent MoU or deal, but the market backdrop has remained shaped by energy pricing.
TD Securities expects energy markets to stay tight and supported at higher prices even if a deal materialises, leaving macro headwinds in place for the precious metals complex. Against that backdrop, CTA positioning in gold is expected to remain broadly steady unless prices trigger a large uptape towards $4750/oz or a downtape towards $4480/oz this week.
Gold’s Underperformance Versus Other Commodities
We see that gold is lagging behind other commodities, as oil and industrial metals benefit more from ongoing supply risks. With Brent crude holding firm above $115 a barrel and US-Iran talks stalling again last week, the conditions that have held gold back are not going away. This dynamic suggests precious metals will likely continue to underperform.
The primary issue for gold is the persistence of macro headwinds driven by high energy costs. The latest US inflation data from May 2026 came in at a stubborn 4.1%, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain its key interest rate at 5.75%. This “higher for longer” rate environment increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it less appealing to investors.
Market Expectations And Strategy For Gold Traders
For derivative traders, this points towards a range-bound market in the coming weeks. We anticipate gold will remain contained unless it breaks below the $4480/oz support or pushes above the $4750/oz resistance level. This suggests that strategies profiting from low volatility, such as selling out-of-the-money call and put options, could be favorable.
This environment is reminiscent of the 2022-2023 period, when aggressive central bank rate hikes overshadowed geopolitical risks, putting a cap on gold prices. Until the market anticipates a clear shift toward monetary easing, we expect these macro pressures to continue weighing on gold. We are positioning ourselves for sideways movement rather than a significant breakout.
