Gold began the week lower, with XAU/USD around $4,470 after dipping below $4,450 earlier in the US session, as Middle East tensions persisted and the US dollar firmed. Talks between Washington and Tehran remained strained after Iran’s Tasnim News Agency reported a suspension of message exchanges, while US Central Command said it conducted “self-defence strikes” on Iranian radar and drone sites and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported retaliation targeting a base used by US forces. Despite the backdrop, gold is down more than 15% since the war began and sits nearly 20% below its late-January peak near $5,600.
Rising oil added pressure, with WTI up more than 5% on Monday, feeding inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations for tighter policy. The CME FedWatch Tool shows markets pricing a 40% chance of a 25-bps hike in December. US data were firm: the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.1 in May from 54.5, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 54.0, its highest since May 2022; attention now turns to Friday’s NFP. Technically, resistance sits at $4,600 and the 100-day SMA near $4,801–$4,802, while support is indicated by the 200-day SMA around $4,410–$4,411 and a $4,100 floor, with the RSI near 43 and ADX around 24.
Key Headwinds: Dollar Strength and Inflation Concerns
With gold slipping below $4,500, we believe the path of least resistance is lower in the coming weeks. The primary headwinds are a dominant US Dollar and the market’s focus on sticky inflation, not geopolitics. The Dollar Index (DXY) recently pushing past 106 confirms its status as the market’s preferred safe-haven asset over gold.
The ongoing US-Iran stalemate is failing to provide a significant bid for gold, as the secondary effects are more powerful. Surges in crude oil prices, with WTI now trading above $80 a barrel, are directly fueling inflation concerns. This reinforces the market’s belief that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
Strategic Setups and Technical Triggers
Given this outlook, we are looking to buy put options with expirations in late June and July to capitalize on potential weakness. With the CBOE Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) holding near a moderate level of 14, option premiums are not excessively expensive. This presents a favorable risk-reward setup for bearish positions.
Our strategy is triggered by gold’s inability to reclaim the $4,600 resistance level. The first major target for these put positions would be the 200-day moving average support around $4,410. A decisive break below this technical floor could accelerate a move towards the more significant support at $4,100.
The US Nonfarm Payrolls report this Friday is the key event we are watching. Last month’s strong report of 272,000 new jobs has already tempered rate cut expectations. Another robust jobs number would virtually eliminate any remaining hope for a near-term Fed pivot and add significant weight to our bearish gold thesis.
This environment is highly reminiscent of the 2022-2023 period when the Fed’s aggressive rate-hiking cycle consistently overpowered any bullish sentiment for gold, despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts. Once again, monetary policy is proving to be the dominant driver for the precious metal. We see the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset as the primary theme for traders right now.
